A Transactional, Deal-Making Trump
According to Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, ''Trump is basically trying to create something like a global bidding war for America’s (Trump's) favour''. Always trying to cut deals, President Trump hinted a while ago that Microsoft could acquire TikTok but a new pitch suggests that a proposed US sovereign wealth fund could be used to purchase ByteDance-owned TikTok. Trump was quoted to have said lately that, “As an example, TikTok, we’re going to be doing something, perhaps, with TikTok and perhaps not. If we make the right deal, we’ll do it. Otherwise, we won’t...Or if we do a partnership with very wealthy people. A lot of options.” Recall that the Biden's administration signed a bill that forced TikTok to be sold or banned from January 2025 but the ban was put on hold by Trump for 75 days. Hence TikTok is currently under pressure to find a new owner by April 2025. A policy strategist, law and governance expert, Dr. Sam Amadi, describes Donald Trump’s foreign policy as being pragmatic – meaning he can shift his position as he senses possibilities to achieve a strategic objective unlike that of his predecessor, Joe Biden. To buttress Trump’s transactional disposition, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman promised to expand Riyadh’s investment and trade in the United States by $600 billion while Trump, ever the dealmaker, eggs on the crown prince to ramp up the investment to $1 trillion. Recall that as part of Trump’s wider Abraham Accords, during his first term, he reportedly relaxed sanctions on Sudan, delisting it from the U.S list of state sponsors of terrorism, unblocking economic aid and investment, in exchange for Khartoum recognising Israel. Abraham Accords is the United States-brokered agreements which ushered in public rapprochements between Israel and many Arab countries.
Implications of Trump’s Dismantling of USAID etc.
Sequel to a presidential directive by Donald Trump, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has been shut down by the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), headed by world’s richest man, Elon Musk. Justifying the dismantling of the USAID, the world's largest donor agency with a $50 billion budget, president Trump asserted that the agency was being “run by radical lunatics.” The USAID will now be merged into the State Department with massive cuts in its budget and workforce in the United States and around the world. According to a Reuters report, Trump plans to downsize USAID staff to just 294 out of the agency's global workforce of over 10,000 employees (97% cut) with only 12 staff remaining in its Africa bureau. The brutal upending of the USAID has triggered enormous crisis for NGOs, healthcare workers across the globe because the agency oversees humanitarian, development and security programs in about 120 countries around the world. With the dismantling of the USAID and stoppage of disbursement of funds from the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), support for HIV treatment in Nigeria will dwindle and some patients whose infections are presently suppressed could see their situation relapse. To put this in perspective, @StatisSense reported on Wednesday January 29, 2025, ''in the last 10 years, the United States of America has disbursed $7.8 billion as foreign aid to Nigeria. Reports indicate that about two million Nigerians currently live with HIV and Nigeria is one of the countries with the highest HIV burden globally. Similarly, losing United States support and funding will choke the World Health Organization (WHO) and its programs in Africa because the U.S. is said to be the largest contributor to WHOs budget. According to figures published by the WHO, ‘’the U.S. donated $1.28 billion to its budget for the 2022-2023 biennium, including $218 million in assessed contributions, $1.02 billion in voluntary contributions and $47 million in contributions to a contingency fund for emergencies’’.
Trump’s ‘War on Terror’ Debuts in Africa
Not to be outdone, Trump is also flexing his muscles and throwing gunboat diplomacy in the mix. Analysts prognosticate that Trump will likely escalate US counter-terrorism operations in Africa, particularly in the Sahel region. On February 1st, AFRICOM carried out its first Trump-directed 'war on terror' against the Islamic State-Somalia organization (ISIS-Somalia) on semi-autonomous Puntland region, northeast Somalia. The attack was reportedly conducted by fighter jets launched from the USS Harry Truman; the US aircraft carrier currently stationed in the Red Sea. The attack targeted what President Trump described on social media as a “Senior ISIS Attack Planner and other terrorists he recruited and led.” Trump added, ‘’These killers, who we found hiding in caves, threatened the United States of America and our allies. The message to ISIS and all others who would attack Americans is that ‘’WE WILL FIND YOU, AND WE WILL KILL YOU!’’.
Africa Won’t Be Trump’s Foreign Policy Priority
There is no gainsaying the fact that Trump openly disparaged and never visited Africa during his first term as President. In this light, it is unlikely that he will be in a hurry to visit any African country during his second term. As a matter of fact, no African head of state was invited to Trump’s inauguration on January 20,2025 nor was no mention or focus on Africa in Trump’s inaugural address. Trump’s “America First” leaning means Africa will likely be rearmost among his priorities. Resolving the crises in Middle East be one of his priorities. Interestingly, Trump's outlandish Gaza plan which entails the United States forcefully taking over the Gaza Strip and resettling Palestinians in other countries has been roundly rejected internationally with a Democratic lawmaker from Texas, Al Green, threatening to file impeachment articles against Trump over the president’s plan to ‘’take over Gaza’’. Meanwhile, Trump’s administration is also expected to present a long-awaited blueprint to end the war between Ukraine and Russia at the Munich Security Conference next week. It includes potentially freezing the conflict and the territory occupied by Russian forces while assuring Ukraine with security guarantees to ensure that Moscow cannot attack again.
One of the reasons that Trump could get involved in Africa will be to counter China’s proliferating political and economic influence in the continent and competing with them for control of strategic raw materials (coltan, uranium, lithium etc.). According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), ‘’Africa holds about 30% of the world’s critical mineral resources while the DRC produces 70% of the world’s cobalt’’. In his essay published in November 2024 titled “Africa in the Second Trump Administration”, Dr. John Peter Pham, former United States Special Envoy for the Sahel Region of Africa submits that, ‘’minerals from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are key to securing supply chains for US defense needs as well as the demands of America’s renewed domestic energies. This explains the relapse to neocolonialism and scramble for Africa by the West, China et al. With this jostle come proxy wars, unending conflicts and humanitarian crises as these vested interests struggle to outfox the other in Africa. This aligns with the theory of the resource curse or paradox of plenty.
Implications of Trump’s Presidency on The Global, Nigerian Economy:
While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the world economy to grow a little faster and inflation to keep falling this year, the IMF issued a warning prognosticating that Trump’s wave of economic policies and tariff threats could exacerbate trade tensions, reduce investment, affect market pricing, distort trade flows, and disrupt supply chains. If we are to draw an inference from Trump’s earlier administration, his tax cuts reportedly triggered a capital repatriation wave that strained foreign direct investment in emerging markets. For Nigeria, this led to a sharp decline in foreign investments, plummeting from $4.65 billion in 2017 to $2.23 billion in 2018. If similar measures play out, Nigeria could face another investment exodus.
According to an economic expert and founder of Nairametrics, Ugochukwu (Ugodre) Obi-Chukwu, in an outlook titled “Nigeria’s Macroeconomic Outlook 2025: Nigeria in Transition: Reforms, Global Shifts and Strategic Opportunities”, “Businesses should hedge against a worst-case scenario of N2,200/$1 and take advantage of a best-case scenario of N1,700$1.
Mr. Taiwo Oyedele, Chair of the Nigerian Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, expressed concerns regarding Trump’s declaration to establish an external revenue service to impose taxes and tariffs on foreign countries. Oyedele noted, ‘’that Trump’s gambit could disrupt international trade and further complicate the already complex global tax system’’.
The United States Set To Ramp Up Crude Oil Connection:
As part of Trump’s
sweeping economic strategy geared towards reducing energy prices, the United
States is slated to restart oil drilling including in offshore sites in Alaska.
Analysts reckon that this game plan could strengthen the US dollar, disrupt the
global oil market and drive down crude oil prices in the international market. Similarly,
if Trump manages to pull off a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, the
flurry of sanctions imposed on Russia would be eased and Russia will resume oil
export leading to oil glut. According to
analysts, oil prices have been depressed
lately sequel to Trump’s call to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) to reduce oil prices. According to CNBC, ''Oil prices fell
about 2% on Monday, January 27, 2025, pressured by losses in Wall Street
technology and energy stocks, as investors took cover after news of surging
interest in Chinese startup DeepSeek’s low-cost artificial intelligence
model''. Given that the Nigerian government benchmarked oil price at $75 per barrel
and an exchange rate of N1,500 per
dollar in Nigeria’s N49.7 trillion 2025
budget now increased to N54.2 trillion.
An oil glut and attendant lower prices would lead to a budget deficit in
Nigeria with a multiplier-effect on the Naira, economy, crime, and national
security. This is possibly why Nigeria's National Security Adviser, Mr. Nuhu
Ribadu is steering a committee to increase oil production in Ogoni community
despite unprecedented environmental degradation
caused by decades of reckless oil exploitation and decrepit equipment littering
Ogoni community.
Trump 2.0 Ripple-Effect on Geopolitics And Security
There is deep apprehension that Trump’s re-election could prognosticate far-reaching geopolitical and security implications for Africa. During Trump's first term, sometime in 2020, Nigeria was added to a list of countries whose citizens (with exceptions), were restricted from entering the United States. It is dicey to predict how Trump 2.0 will impact Africa, nay, Nigeria security-wise. Alex Thurston, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Cincinnati reckons that Trump's administration could recognize Somaliland, a breakaway territory that has been claiming independence from Somalia since 1991. According to Chidi Nwaonu, a UK based Security expert and founder of Peccavi Consulting, ‘’currently things will most likely continue at the same level, Africa being a low priority, it is likely that unless budgets are cut, Counterterrorism operations in Somalia and training teams elsewhere will most likely continue as before’’. Nwaonu also submitted that, ‘’there are many variables to consider, if for example the AES continue their confrontation with the West & do something considered embarrassing, Trump may seek to flex his muscles. IF China or Russia expand their influence, he may seek to try and challenge them in Africa, especially if he faces domestic economic and political pressures’’.
From the tensions between Rwanda and DRC, the Sudanese crises, militant uprisings and resurgence of coups in the Sahel, amongst others, Africa is disproportionately embroiled in internecine conflict. Speaking at a meeting focused on the fight against terrorism on the African continent, convened by Algeria, the Council's President for January 2025, the United Nations Deputy Secretary-General, Ms. Mohammed asserted that terrorism is the most significant threat to peace, security and sustainable development across Africa today. She presented sobering statistics detailing the devastating toll of terrorism. ‘’Sub-Saharan Africa now accounts for nearly 59 percent of all terrorism-related deaths in the world while the Sahel is “ground zero” for one of the world’s worst conflicts. Terrorism-related deaths in the region have topped 6,000 for the past three consecutive years, accounting for more than half of all global deaths’’.
Proposed UNSC’s Permanent Seats for Africa?
Africa, a continent comprising 54 nations with about 1.2 billion people is expected to become the world’s largest region by the year 2050 and 1 in 4 human beings on earth will be African by 2050. Granted African nations hold 28% of the votes in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) but unfortunately, nearly 80 years after the establishment of the United Nations, Africa has yet to be granted a permanent seat on its most powerful organ, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) which is currently peopled with five permanent members - the US, UK, Russia, France, China.
Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank in Washington, DC, outgoing U.S ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield reportedly opined that Africa is far from united – particularly on the question of who would actually get a seat at the UNSC. Despite this misgiving, on 12 September 2024, the United States announced its support for the African continent to be allocated two permanent seats at the UNSC, but with no veto power. Similarly, on 13 August 2024, the United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres joined the fray and called for the inclusion of Africa in the permanent seat of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). So, which African countries are top contenders? According to a blog post on the website of the London School of Economics, the top African contenders include South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt, amongst others.
South Africa’s Chances
Given the strong geostrategic advantage of economic diplomacy wielded by South Africa within and outside Africa, the United States is said to be favorably disposed to having South Africa ascend to the UNSC’s permanent seat. However, South Africa’s alignment with BRICS could be a minus and pose a threat to Washington’s interests in Africa. More so, the Institute of Security Studies (ISS) reports that, ''all three national security team members (Senator Marco Rubio – secretary of state, Michael Waltz – national security adviser, and Elise Stefanik – UN ambassador) nominated by Trump, have raised concerns about South Africa positioning itself in the orbit of Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran as well as its antisemitic antics''. As a forestate of what is to come, Trump recently announced that he would cut off all future funding to South Africa, citing allegations that the South African government was confiscating land and treating certain classes of people “very badly.” Days after US President Donald Trump announced funding cuts over Pretoria’s land expropriation bill, South Africa's President Cyril Ramaphosa came out in defense of his country during his recent national address, asserting that South Africa would not be bullied. According to Reuters, ‘’the United States allocated nearly $440 million in assistance to South Africa in 2023, covering health programs, economic development, and security cooperation. The implication of this is that Trump's administration may be tough on South Africa. In response to Trump’s decision to cut financial aid to South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa stated that the U.S. only contributes to 17 per cent of its funding for HIV/AIDS, which is a huge contrast to Nigeria, which heavily depends on the U.S. for 86 per cent of its funding to control HIV/AIDS.
Nigeria’s Chances
Though Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and wields regional influence within the now Balkanized Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the socio-economic, and poor human rights records may impede its chances. Nigeria ticks the right buttons as far as demographics and regional influence are concerned.
Egypt’s Chances
With a GDP of about $347.6 billion in 2024, Egypt is the second biggest economy in Africa, after South Africa. Egypt’s geographical and transcontinental juxtaposition between North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia dichotomy could hinder support of African Union member states for Africa’s representation in the UNSC’s permanent seat.
Conclusion:
Going by Trump’s "America First" agenda and aversion to a rules-based order, we prognosticate the following geopolitical and economic implications: reduced U.S. diplomatic engagement with Africa, decreased multilateral ties with international organizations, further scrutiny of AGOA and U.S-Africa trade agreements, leading to trade instability and uncertainty for African economies. If the United States continues disengaging from Africa, China will increasingly become Africa’s leading trade and investment partner. On the security front, the Trump administration might further scale down its military footprint and counterterrorism efforts in Africa. Paucity of U.S. funding for United Nations-led missions may worsen instability and conflict in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa. Without strong U.S. security cooperation, terror groups like Boko Haram, ISIS in Africa, and Al-Shabaab could exploit the power vacuum and up the ante. Finally, it is high time at least two African countries were made permanent members with a veto vote, of the UN Security Council (UNSC). Time will tell how events play out.
Written by:
©Don Okereke, CPP, fisn.
A security expert, analyst, consultant, thought leader, writer, researcher, and subject matter expert in Nigeria.
X/Twitter handle: @DonOKereke
February 7, 2025
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