Introduction: From been underrated and likened to a band of rag-tag, amateurish,
illiterate folks few years ago, the Boko Haram Islamic Sect metamorphosed into
the ‘world’s
most lethal terrorist group’; deadlier than ISIS,
Al-Qaeda. No thanks to the Sect’s unrelenting attacks, the 2015 Global
Terrorism Index, GTI, ranked Nigeria as the third
most terrorized country in the world. According to the Borno State governor
– Kashim Shettima, Boko Haram’s sporadic eight years insurgency has led to the
death of 100,
000 and displacement of two million people (IDPs)
in northeast Nigeria. The Crises Group believes a famine,
food crises is in the offing in northeast Nigeria.
Barrage Of Flip-flops, Self-justifications
And Alibi’s
Just recently, the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Lt. Gen. Tukur Buratai,
gave a 40-day
ultimatum to Major General Ibrahim Attahiru, the
Theatre Commander of Operation Lafiya Dole in the North-east, to capture Boko
Haram’s leader, Abubakar Shekau, dead or alive. Announcing the ultimatum, the
Director of Army Public Relations, Brig. Gen. Sani Usman, said, “The Theatre
Commander has further been directed to do so within 40 days. He is to employ
all arsenals at the disposal of the Theatre Command to smoke out Shekau
wherever he is hiding in Nigeria.” Same Shekau that the military repeatedly
claim it has killed? An Igbo proverb says only a tree will remain fixed if
threatened to be cut down. A popular movie slogan says, if you want to shoot,
shoot, don’t talk. What is the intention, rationale in giving a kamikaze enemy
advance notice that you are coming after him? The United States military didn’t
give prior ultimatum, notice to Osama Bin Laden before he was routed out,
effaced. Well, the 40 day ultimatum is already counting; let’s see how it pans
out.
Not to be outdone, the Nigerian Air Force (NAF) bandies an alibi
why it struggles to rein in Boko Haram. The latest of such defense is that thunderstorm
and rainfall impacted negatively on it operations
in the northeast. But thunderstorm and rainfall does not occur night and day,
non-stop in the northeast. Interestingly
the rain does not seem to slow down the insurgents’ capacity to carry out
attacks. In a related development, the Nigerian military initially claimed it
rescued 10 abducted University of Maiduguri and NNPC oil workers but their
claim turned out to be falsehood. The military
tendered an apology thereafter for misleading the public. Moving forward, the Defence
Headquarters also blamed recent Boko Haram attacks in Borno State on the
information the insurgents get from informants. Defence Spokesman, Major
General John Enenche stated this on Monday, July 31, 2017, on Channels Television breakfast
programme, Sunrise Daily. Reacting to the attack on the crude oil exploration
team in Borno, Major General Enenche noted that unless the terrorists were
given adequate information about the progress of the exploration exercise, the
team would not have fallen into the ambush. This penchant for untenable, hogwash,
half-truths is why many Nigerians seldom trust the security agencies. If the
insurgents upped the ante as a result of information from informants, it
follows that the military’s counter-intelligence capability leaves much to be
desired. Did the military not carry out risk assessment, surveillance before
embarking on the escort? If the military with their sophisticated weaponry and
expertise cannot safely escort the crude oil explorers, what is the fate of
locals, civilians, and humanitarian staff working in the northeast? Boko Haram
has waged its violent insurgency since 2009. Their attacks are largely focalized
in three states in northeast Nigeria– Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe. Out of the
three states, Borno appears to be the bastion. While we agree that there is no magic
wand to fixing insurgency/terrorism, we also know it is not rocket science or a
new phenomenon in Nigeria. Wondering what the military would do if they have to
fight in multiple fronts. Say the Niger Delta militancy is simultaneously
thrown into the mix and the hitherto peaceful agitation for Biafra independence
transmutes into a violent campaign.
Military Lacks Capacity to
Hold Captured Territories in Northeast Nigeria
A 2016 Country Reports on Terrorism released by the United States
Department of State Bureau of Counter-terrorism released on July
19, 2017, and obtained by ThisDay Newspaper, asserts that ‘’the Nigerian military lacks capacity to hold captured
territories in northeast Nigeria’’. The candid
report goes further to state that, “Despite gains made by the Multi-National
Joint Task Force (MNJTF), much of its reported progress was merely duplication
of failed efforts carried over from the end of last dry/fighting season,”
adding: “The Nigerian military was unable to hold and rebuild civilian
structures and institutions in those areas it had cleared.” It further faulted
the decision of the federal government to return internally displaced people (IDPs)
to their original place of abode, saying that this was being done without
adequate security.
According to the States Department report, “The Department of
State Security (DSS) is the primary investigating agency for terrorism cases,
but there have been longstanding sustained concerns about its capacity to
investigate terrorist financing as it does not share case information with
other agencies that also have the mandate to conduct terrorist financing
investigations and prosecutions, such as the EFCC’’. “…there were no known efforts on the part of the EFCC or the
Ministry of Justice to prosecute terrorist financing cases. This is not first time
the United States is critiquing Nigeria’s counterterrorism strategy, nay,
anti-terrorism law. Recall that the 2012 US Country report on Terrorism equally
cited aspects of Nigeria’s terrorism law, especially the delay in the trial of
suspected terrorists and the delay in the freezing of assets of suspected
terrorists, as being weak.
Boko Haram Not Defeated, Still Very
Much A Threat
While the Buhari administration and the military hierarchy
frequently bluster how Boko Haram has been conquered or ‘’technically defeated’’, pragmatic evidence suggests the
Islamic Sect is resilient against all odds and may likely remain a threat in
the foreseeable future. A somewhat conservative and not quite up-to-date data culled from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
(ACLED) says that up to June 2017, ‘’Boko Haram masterminded at least 48
attacks—successful and unsuccessful in Nigeria’’. If the sequence of attacks
from the second week of June to first week of August is factored in, the above
data will definitely skyrocket. As recent as August 1, 2017, purportedly
defeated Boko Haram insurgents overran – Mildu, a community in Madagali Local Government Area of Adamawa
state killing seven people, injuring scores and torching houses. Boko Haram’s relentless
attacks, killings, abductions and mayhem do not foretell a Sect that has been
defeated. They are still very much a threat. Ignore; downplay their capacity,
resilience and tenacity at your peril.
Bent on Deradicalization
of Terrorists At The Expense of Prosecution
We hear almost on a daily basis how a senior Boko Haram
"Commander" was arrested but nothing is ever heard about the arrested
or captured insurgents standing trial. It appears the Nigerian government, nay,
the Buhari administration prefers enrolling captured or so-called surrendered Boko
Haram insurgents into a government sponsored ‘’de-radicalization
programme’’, swap them with abductees (Chibok
schoolgirls) than have the insurgents prosecuted? In August 2016, Nigeria’s
National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) says it presented relief items to a
group of 800
former Boko Haram members who recently denounced
their membership of the group. The
repentant insurgents are being camped at a military-controlled facility known
as ‘’Safe Corridor’’ in Gombe State where they are undergoing rehabilitation
and deradicalization programmes. Lately, forty-three
Boko Haram insurgents who supposedly surrendered to
troops of Operation Lafiya Dole were air-lifted to join other ‘repentant’
insurgents in the said Safe Corridor programme in Gombe. So what's the essence
of Nigeria's anti-terrorism law if Boko Haram insurgents cannot be tried under
that law? Is there an effort by the Nigerian military or defence establishment
to measure recidivism of so-called de-radicalized Boko Haram insurgents?
Nigeria’s Anti-terrorism
Law, A Paper-Tiger?
In its bid to tackle Boko Haram’s insurgency, terrorism in
Nigerian shores, the Nigerian Senate stitched up a seemingly paper-tiger
anti-terrorism law known as the Terrorism
(prevention) Act which prescribed death
penalty for individuals found guilty of terrorism.
Nearly 10 years into Boko Haram’s insurgency and blistering terrorist attacks,
there’s very sparse information as to the number of people (if any) convicted
for terrorism or terrorist activities in Nigeria. While Mr. Henry
Okah has since been convicted in South Africa for masterminding
twin car bombings during the 50th Independence Day celebration at Eagle Square,
Abuja in 2010, the trial of his brother, Mr. Charles Okah who faces
similar charges, has dragged on for several years. Another example of Nigeria’s
slowpoke judicial process is the protracted prosecution of one Aminu Sadiq
Ogwuche who allegedly masterminded the April 14, 2014 bomb blast that killed
over 75 persons and wounded 100 others at a crowded motor park in Nyanya, Abuja.
Compare the slowpoke judicial process in Nigeria with the swift prosecution and
conviction of Mr. Umar
Farouk Abdulmutallab, who attempted to blow up a
United States airliner with a bomb hidden in his underwear in December 2009.
Nigeria’s Sloppy ‘Prisoner
Swap Policy’
With the kidnapped Chibok girls in their custody for more than two
years, Boko haram insurgents forced the Nigerian government to the negotiating
table. It
was obvious the Nigerian government negotiated out of desperation, from a
position of weakness. Five senior Boko
Haram commanders were reportedly freed from a
high security unity in exchange for 82 of the abducted Chibok schoolgirls.
BBC’s report titled – the
fate of the Chibok girls asserts that the men released
were ‘’high-level Boko Haram bomb-makers, and that they were accompanied by two
million euros (ransom) in cash’’. Did the Nigerian military obtain the
biometrics of these arrested insurgents? Why are the identities of
the Boko Haram commanders freed by the Nigerian government shrouded in secrecy?
Any guarantee that Boko Haram will not re-channel the
supposed ransom payment towards acquiring more weaponry? Any guarantee that the
freed insurgents will not relapse to terrorism? Recall that Sahara Reporters
reported that three Boko Haram Commanders released in swap deal for 82 Chibok
Girls threatened
to bomb Abuja, Nigeria’s federal capital few
days after they were freed. I warned about the implications of the swap deal in
my essay published on September 22, 2016 titled – ‘’Recidivism;
Unintended Consequences of ‘Amnesty’ To Boko Haram Insurgents, Militants And
Chibok School Girls Swop’’. Notwithstanding the
prisoner swap deal with Boko Haram which led to the release of 82 Chibok
abducted Chibok girls, many of the girls are still in the Sects captivity three
months after their colleagues were freed. No intelligence was gleaned from the
released girls that would lead to the rescue of their colleagues still in
captivity? Are these girls domiciled in another planet? Nigeria’s
counter-intelligence and surveillance capability is certainly wanting.
More
often than not, a prisoner exchange is between two sovereign nations and the individuals
involved are known. The US and Iran exchanged prisoners in 2016. Four Iranian-Americans and an American student
were released from jail in Iran, and six Iranian-Americans and an Iranian
convicted in the US for violating sanctions were flown to Tehran. The US swapped five Taliban fighters for US Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl. Also,
Cuba
and the United States discussed a prisoner swap deal
in 2016.
There was a prisoner
exchange between Israel and Hezbollah in July 2008.
Hezbollah transferred the coffins of two Israeli soldiers in
exchange for 5 Lebanese militants held by Israel.
Boko Haram’s Bargaining
Chip Strategy
Having
trialled the efficacy of kidnap-for-ransom-and-prisoner-swap-deals, recalcitrant,
remorseless Boko Haram militants will continue to deploy this bargaining chip stock-in-trade.
Predictably, the Islamic Sect reportedly kidnapped
about 10 women, part of a police/military convoy abducted along Damboa road,
outside Maiduguri, Borno state. Just like the initial denial of the Chibok
school girls’ abduction, the Nigerian government/police also denied the
abduction of these women. It was after Boko Haram’s leader - Shekau released a video of the 10 distraught women that the Nigerian authorities owned up.
It’s been more than 30 days and the women are still in Boko Haram’s custody. Similarly,
the Boko Haram faction purportedly loyal to IS-supported Abu Mus’ab Al-Barnawi is
said to have attacked
three military bases in northeast Nigeria lately.
This faction is also reportedly responsible for the recent ambush, attack and
abduction of some University of Maiduguri staff that were part of a crude oil exploration
team in Borno State. “So far the death toll from the aforesaid attack stands at
69,” says an aid agency worker involved in the recovery of bodies after the
attack in the Magumeri area of Borno state. Boko Haram has since released a
video of its latest abductees.
Going forward, I prognosticate that since the Nigerian government
has set the precedent for negotiating and allegedly paying ransom to
terrorists, this may not be the last kidnap-for-ransom-and-extortion bargaining
chip incident.
Need To Buttress, Rejig
Nigeria’s Counterterrorism Strategy, Policy
Nigeria’s National Counter Terrorism Strategy, NACTEST, was
reviewed and re-launched by the Buhari administration in August 2016. President
Buhari was quoted as saying, ‘’since terrorism is not static; the country must also
be decisive and dynamic in approaching and defeating it’’. Going forward he
said: “This is why a robust and dynamic Counterterrorism strategy is crucial in
the fight against terrorism, and must be constantly reviewed for relevance to
contemporary challenges’’. According to the National Security Adviser, Major
General Babagana Monguno (Rtd), “NACTEST is organized around five streams aimed
to forestall, secure, identify, prepare and implement with key objectives and
indicators to effectively ensure monitoring and evaluating successes at each
stage.” Recall that NACTEST was a soft-approach (Countering Violent Extremism,
CVE) programme conceived and introduced in 2014 by the erstwhile National
Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki (Rtd) to counter terrorism, violent
extremism in Nigeria. In the words of Col. Dasuki, ‘’the National
Counterterrorism Strategy, NACTEST, was developed to offer a key blueprint for
law enforcement agencies to combat terrorists’’.
In his July 2016 essay published on the International Journal of Intelligence, Security,
and Public Affairs titled -
Rethinking Nigeria’s Counter-Terrorism Strategy, Brigadier General Eugene Eji,
a fellow of the Buckingham University Center for Security and Intelligence Studies,
United Kingdom and Nigeria’s National Defence College submitted inter-alia that, ‘’The government’s
strategy to counter the threat appears ineffective’’. He went further to say
that, ‘’NACTEST is observed to be fraught with gaps that question its
suitability as a policy document for countering terrorism in Nigeria’’
Conclusion:
There's no gainsaying the fact that Nigeria has made progress in
containing Boko Haram but saying that Boko Haram has been defeated (technically
or otherwise), is fallacious. There's urgent need to rejig Nigeria's Counterterrorism
strategy, intelligence gathering capabilities. Flipping ‘armchair’ service
chiefs that would stay in posh accommodations/offices to and fro Maiduguri is symbolic,
may boost morale but it is not the panacea to the brutal Boko Haram insurgency.
If Nigeria must win the ‘war on terror’, high time Nigeria’s counterterrorism
NACTEST blueprint was reappraised. A coherent, robust, holistic and
fit-for-purpose counterterrorism strategy/policy is exigent. To rein in Boko
Haram, Nigerian security and intelligence agencies must be innovative, proactive,
on the offensive, not reactive. Similarly, Nigeria's anti-terrorism law must
not be a paper-tiger sacrificed at the altar of an untested deradicalization
programme. Prosecuting terrorists, their sponsors, financiers promptly will also
serve as a deterrent. Folks who do the crime must be ready to do the time.
Written By:
Don Okereke, a security analyst/consultant, writer, ex-serviceman, is CEO
Holistic Security Background Checks Limited
Follow Me on Twitter: @DonOkereke
August
2, 2017
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