The year
2018 ended on a sour note along the shoreline of Lake Chad. For the last
fortnight the reports of conflict near the town of Baga have caught analysts by
surprise.
The
insurgents who are believed to be from ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa
Province) were actually able to capture the town. Reports have indicated that
at least 700 Nigerian Troops remain unaccounted for while another 2000 are
reported to be surrounded as well. Baga is also a base for the regional joint
task force tasked with defeating Boko Haram as well. There is a presence of
Chadian Troops at this facility also. The status of these troops have not been
verified yet.
There is a
sordid history regarding this town as well. In 2013 an incident between Boko
Haram and the Nigerian Military led to the deaths of an estimated 200
Civilians.The group then returned to the area and launched an attack in January
2015 over a four day period that resulted in over 2,000 people be killed
according to some accounts. It is clear that there is an intrinsic strategic
value that Baga maintains that the insurgents find enticing.
The recent
attacks reveal some interesting trends in the conflict that should be
monitored.
The tactics
that are currently used by the Nigerian Military are not working. One of the
basic tenets of a counterinsurgency program is that when a Nation is failing
while using this strategy it is failing because of governance. The current
leadership in the Nigerian Military has not provided adequate training or
equipment to the boots on the ground.
The
civilian authorities in Abuja have not been able to restore its presence in
Borno State either. Providing basic services whether on a federal or state
level does play into the hands of the insurgents. With Presidential elections
scheduled to take place this year another question that arises is how will the
recent fighting around Baga impact the election?
The new
tactics being used by ISWAP of overrunning a facility and promptly vacating it
after a certain amount of time shows that they have learned new tactics from
fighters returning from battlefields in Libya, Mali and Syria. The return of
these fighters will change how the conflict will evolve.
Another
fact that needs to be considered is what happens when ISWAP and Boko Haram come
into conflict. These competing ideologies may come into direct conflict sooner
as some of the more militant strains of Islam rise and fall. There has been no
reports of any direct confrontations yet between these two groups.
The
fighting around Baga shows that Nigeria still finds itself at an impasse.
Despite changes in leadership some key issues that plague the country are not
being addressed. That could be from issues that are not being addressed by
Parliament. There are some structural flaws such as having the Police being run
from Abuja and not the States. This does influence response times and could
politicize some investigations as well.
These
issues can be resolved. But there has to be some will to resolve these issues
to move Nigeria forward. .
Written by: Scott Morgan
Twitter: @confusedeagledc
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