This is the second tranche of this essay; an attempt to trace, reconcile the perennial agitation,
quest for secession or Balkanization of Nigeria. Here’s a link to the first part. The part of this essay also chronicles the mixed
bag of recent militant groups, more than a dozen at the last count.
Proliferation of Militias: The Niger Delta Avengers and others
More than 50 years after Major Isaac Jasper Adaka Boro formed the
secessionist Ijaw Volunteer Force
and declared the Niger Delta
Republic on February 23, 1966, battling Federal
forces for twelve days before he was reined in, another militia group – the
Niger Delta Avengers is threading the same path. Prior
to the current relapse to militancy in the Niger Delta, it is on record that the
Movement for the Survival of Ogoni People (MOSOP) led
by late Human Right Activist, Mr. Ken Saro-Wiwa, campaigned vigorously for
resource control before been put down by the General Sani Abacha government. Several
years later, the agitation refuses to go away and have become even more virulent.
In a July 24, 2011 interview with Vanguard newspaper, one Chief Samuel Timinipre Owonaru said
to be the second in command to late Isaac Boro said inter alia, ‘’The tenets
which have us in a stranglehold, that deny us our right to be able to control
and manage our resources, are still in place. And until those laws are either
reviewed or abrogated outright from our statute book, the struggle continues’’.
While the due of the MASSOB and the IPOB approach has been largely
nonviolent (sit in, demonstrations), the new kid on the block, the Niger Delta
Avengers (NDA) has upped the ante. The Niger Delta Avengers has carried out
about sixteen attacks on oil and gas facilities in the Niger Delta area between
February 20 and June 9, 2016. Here’s a timeline of Niger Delta Avengers attacks during aforementioned period. Even
the Nigerian President, Buhari acknowledged and lamented that the Niger Delta
Avengers are ‘’using
high technology to bomb crude oil facilities’’. Recall
that the militant group promised a while ago that it would reduce Nigeria's
Crude oil output zero. They seem to be living up to their threat as militant
attacks have cut Nigeria's oil production by more than half a million barrels
per day. Some oil majors have declared force majeure as a result of this. Given
their sophistication and ‘expertise’ for blistering attacks on crude oil and gas
installations, one wonders if the Niger Delta Avengers are not old wine in new
kegs or mishmash of both?
With the ongoing Boko Haram counterinsurgency operation in the
North-East and a similar scenario in the Niger Delta, Nigeria is essentially
enmeshed in multiple asymmetrical warfare, insurgency. The implication of this
is that the security agencies will be stretched and the Nigerian economy will
begin to feel the brunt dwindling crude oil price, export in no distant time.
Roll Call of Militant
Groups in the Niger Delta
It is not clear whether the intent of this macabre parade is aimed
at disinformation or actual proliferation but suffice it to say that apart from
the popular Niger Delta Avengers, there are more than a dozen militant groups. This
creates an impression that militancy is the fastest growing ‘industry’ in
Nigeria? Recently declared militant groups in Nigeria include: the New Delta Suicide Squad (NDSS), Red
Egbesu Water Lions (REWL), Egbesu Mightier
Fraternity, Joint Revolutionary Council (JRC), the Isoko Liberation Movement (ILM),
Ultimate Warriors of Niger Delta (UWND), the Bakassi
Strike Force (operatives around Akwa-Ibom -
Cross River axis), Utorogu Liberation Movement (ULM), the Outgas Force, the
Niger Delta Sea Commandos (NDSC), Ekpeye
Liberation Group (ELG), Asawana
Deadly Force of Niger Delta (ADFND), Niger
Delta Red Squad (NDRS) and
plausibly many more in the offing. On a lighter note, it appears there are no
Non Commissioned Officers (NCO) or rank and file in the camp of the militant
groups as they all seem to accord themselves extravagant titular ranks –
Brigadier General ABC, Major General DCE or simply General.
One thing is sure, the enormous wealth, power-broker, celebrity
status that the so-called former (are they really former?) Niger Delta
militants assumed must have motivated other foot soldiers to tow that path. Former militants turned celebrity billionaires such as
Alhaji Asari Dokubo (leader of the Niger Delta People’s Volunteer Force –NDPVF),
Ateke Tom (leader of the Niger Delta Vigilante – NDV) and Chief Government Ekpemupolo
a.k.a Tompolo et al attests to the ‘lucrative’, should I say fêting trait of
militancy. It is not unlikely that former
gaffers are neutral in this relapse in militancy. Notwithstanding repeated denials,
cat and mouse game between him and the Niger Delta Avengers, insinuation is
rife that Mr. Tompolo may have a hand in the activities of the Niger Delta
Avengers. Given that one of theirs – Jonathan is no longer in power and they no
longer have free access to the presidency, it is pretty unlikely the current
breed of Niger Delta militants will be assuaged, appeased with pipeline
protection contracts or amnesty largesse. Of course current militancy is been
branded as a just cause: agitation for resource control, self-determination and
environmental activism. Not to sound alarmist but rather as an admonition,
this writer submits that failure to arrest contemporary goings-on in the Niger
Delta and in Nigeria may herald unpredictable upshots.
Factors fanning the embers of militancy, secession
1. Political dynamics and sentiment: Disenchanted civilian leaders in the Niger Delta seem to sympathize and covertly support the activities of the militant groups. They
see them as ‘’armed agitators’’ fighting for ‘’true federalism and
self-determination’’. According to Dr. Reuben Abati, ‘’(Niger
Delta agitators) seem to have been further provoked
by the arrival in Abuja of “a new Pharaoh (Buhari) who does not seem to know
Joseph.” Abati went further to say that, ‘’…the paucity of patronage, the type
that channels money into the pockets of Niger Delta militants, warlords or
foot-soldiers, and since Abuja also seems to have become wasteland for the
once-triumphant Niger Deltan, the Jonathan crowd, and the fisherman’s cap, the
informal patronage that turned many Niger Deltans into king’s men and women,
has vanished’’. Professor Bolaji Akinyemi, a former Nigeria External Affairs
Minister, at a public forum in Lagos, sometime ago, explained that, "the rise of militias is a feature of plural
societies: Societies which have fractured structurally and where the laid down
mechanism for dealing with such pluralism has failed or is in the process of
failing." On his part, Mr. Max Siollun asserts that, ‘’the Nigerian
government have a long history of treating serious problems as molehills until
they become volcanic-mountain-range problems. In 1995, the government executed
Ken Saro-Wiwa and eight other activists who had dared to call attention to
economic exploitation and marginalization in the Niger Delta. The core
complaints raised by the activists were never addressed, however, and soon they
had given rise to an armed insurgency that reduced Nigeria’s oil output by 50
percent and cost it billions of dollars in lost revenue. In the early 2000s,
the government also ignored a small religious sect in the northeast — only to
watch it morph into Boko Haram’’.
2. Economic, quest for resource control: The
Niger Delta Avengers recently asked via its twitter handle @NDAvengers: ‘’Can
Niger Deltans ask the Nigerian President and his northern law makers on how
they intend funding the so-called North East Development Commission? Hope it is
not what the High Command of the NDA is thinking?’’ Emboldened by the UK/EU
referendum, the Niger Delta Avengers have asked President Buhari to conduct a
referendum on the future of the Niger Delta. The sentiment in the Niger Delta is that their place is the geese that lays the golden eggs, the
livewire of the Nigerian economy yet is massively underdeveloped. The Niger
Delta militants contend that while pipeline protection contracts awarded to
indigenes of the region have been cancelled by the President Buhari
administration, the oil well licenses which they claim 80% are owned by
Northern oligarchs and politicians were not cancelled nor re-allocated. According to Dr. Ochonu, a Professor of African History at
Vanderbilt University, ‘’the ethnic nature of the militias in Nigeria points to
a failure of the state to address certain basic fundamental issues in
nationhood. This includes political and economic equity, safety to lives and
property, human rights and resource control’’.
3. Unemployment, poverty, environmental
degradation: Definitely not a justification for bearing
arms, but in the face of receding amnesty stipend
payments, national unemployment rate currently pegged at 12.1%, youth
unemployment, 42.24%, Nigerian GDP recording a negative growth of -0.36%,
inflation standing at 13.7%, all of this may have contributed to the
proliferation of militant groups.
4.
Lack
of proactive intelligence, arms proliferation:
Nigeria’s security and intelligence paraphernalia are not proactive but
reactive paper-tigers. Where were they when sophisticated arms traversed and
continue to permeate the nook and cranny of Nigeria?
Solutions:
Use Technology To Monitor, Protect
Critical National Infrastructures
The Niger Delta is said to cover approximately 80,000 square kilometers
of land mass. If water bodies are factored in
including the Atlantic offshore, the Calabar-Cameroun Sea, continuing to
Equatorial Guinea, we are looking at plausibly 180,000 square km. The Niger
Delta reportedly boasts of over 6,000 creeks, rivers and actuaries. It is
difficult to station police officers, the military or security agents to cover
or protect 6,000 kilometers of pipeline round the clock hence a military
solution to the Niger Delta militancy is not sustainable in the long run. As
this writer argued elsewhere, the Niger Delta militancy is akin to having a tsetse
fly perched on the scrotum, use a sledge hammer and it becomes disastrous,
leave it to fester and it portends danger. High time innovative technologies were
deployed to monitor environmental risks, malicious activities and protect not
just oil and gas installations but other critical national infrastructure in
Nigeria. This is where Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) otherwise known as
quadrocopters or drones and enhanced
satellite imaging technology comes into play. A
‘weaponized’ drone fitted with sophisticated optical devices will efficiently
do the job of hundreds, possibly thousands of troops. With such an innovation, troops
only intervene when there’s need.
Political Solution
Writer
submits that it will be counter-productive for the government to be seen to be
overtly negotiating with arm bearing geezers. It is this earlier outdoor
negotiation approach that precipitated the current audacity of militancy. Using
back channels to do the negotiation suffices. This payment of amnesty stipend
is not sustainable in the long run. As they say, you cannot keep doing the same
thing the same way and expect a different result. It is better to teach a man who
likes eating fish how to catch fish rather than given him portions of fish
anytime he solicits for it. What the Niger Delta needs is massive
infrastructural development. Militancy will fizzle out if the Niger Delta can
be likened to Abuja or Lagos.
On
the larger issue of constant agitation for secession, it is high time we
addressed the remote and immediate causes of this recurring agitation for
Balkanization of Nigeria. It should not be swept under the carpet; dissenting
ideas must not be stifled. Even the
Nobel Laureate – Professor Wole Soyinka recently joined the growing rank of
eminent Nigerians advocating for Nigeria to be restructured. Professor Soyinka
submitted that Nigeria’s sovereignty is negotiable.
Conclusion
An upshot of the 2015 presidential election is that Nigeria is
more than ever fragmented along ethnic, religious lines. As Bishop Matthew
Kukah put it in his recent interview, ‘’Nigeria is now a more divided country’’. The apparent
lopsided political appointments by President Buhari further stoke the embers of
disenchantment and marginalization. It is incumbent on Mr. President to heal
the nation. He needs to come to terms with the fact, home truth that Nigeria as
presently constituted and governed, is not working. Let’s stop playing the
Ostrich and face our demons. If Nigeria is a divine project and a fait accompli
as some us believe, then a radical political restructuring which entails true
or fiscal federalism and devolution of powers to the federating units is
exigent and will arrest perennial instability, complaint of marginalization and
agitation for secession. This will ensure economic justice and equity. It will
make central political power less attractive and contentious. But if the status
quo: politics of divide and rule, appeasement, concentration of political power
at Abuja persists, we end up postponing the evil day.
If
President Buhari openly supports the creation of an independent Palestine, and
Western Sahara, why is he visibly enraged anytime Biafra, Niger Delta Republic
or secession is mentioned? Enshrined in
Article 1 of the Charter of the United Nations is the principle of
self-determination which states that, ‘’all people have the right to
self-determination. By virtue of that right, they freely determine their
political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural
development’’. The United Kingdom just voted to exit the European Union. In
2014, Scots voted in a referendum whether or not they want an independent
Scotland. No single gunshot was fired and no one threatened anybody. Catalonia
is angling to break away from Spain. It boils down to a battle of ideas,
superior argument and robust campaign. So
why is it treasonable when folks suggest or clamour for a Balkanization of
Nigeria?
If President Buhari and proponents of ‘One Nigeria’ are comfortable
with the current arrangement of Nigeria and they are confident that Ndigbo, the
Niger Delta people, have a good deal in Nigeria, why not organize a referendum,
plebiscite to this effect rather than force their wishes down the throat of
others or kill innocent people who stage peaceful demonstrations seeking
independence?
Written
by:
© Don Okereke
(Security Junkie/Analyst/Consultant,
Ex-serviceman, Writer)
Follow me on
Twitter: @donokereke
June, 2016
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