Ramping
Up Pressure On Boko Haram:
The Nigerian military seem to have found
its mojo lately sequel to the postponement of the Nigeria’s general election for
six weeks supposedly to enable the military rein in Boko Haram within that lag
albeit wobbling to do so for more than six years. Kudos to the Nigerian
military, Chadian, Nigerien, Cameroonian forces and the ‘technical
advisers’, euphemism for ‘mercenaries’, for turning the table against Boko
Haram. Basking on the current euphoria, Nigeria’s Chief of Army Staff – Lt.
Gen. Kenneth Minimah was recently quoted as saying, ‘never
again will Boko Haram humiliate the Nigerian Army’. Contrary to New York Times report that ‘Nigerian Army is noticeably absent in towns taken
from Boko Haram’, the singsong from the military is how Boko Haram has been
‘flushed out’ from so and so town. No doubt the military is stretched right now
and it is unlikely it can permanently occupy every inch of land retaken from
Boko Haram.
Some Hard
Questions:
Granted the military has recorded successes in
recapturing swathes of territories from Boko Haram but it is preposterous to
presume that Boko Haram has been crushed and will
just fizzle out. Yes, territories have been retaken but have you weaned or
de-radicalized their warped ideology, mentality that fuels this bloodletting?
Where exactly are remnants of Boko Haram adherents, fighters now? Have they all
perished? Is it not possible they quickly melted into our midst? A recent United
States intelligence report opined that Islamist militant group Boko Haram
has about 4,000-6,000 “hardcore” fighters. If true, where are these fighters right now? There are reports
that Helicopters supply logistics etc to BH, where are these choppers coming
from? BH used a remotely controlled bomb sometime in Niger and even embedded
over 1,500 landmines on the routes leading to the towns they captured earlier.
Where are they getting this expertise from? Boko Haram is well-organized, financed
and definitely have sponsors, who are they? Who supplies them petrol, arms,
food stuff etc? What do we know about Al-Urwah al-Wuthqa the alleged media
company that handles Boko Haram's Social media activities and propaganda? We are told the military has retaken xyz
towns from Boko Haram yet no news, no trace of hundreds of the abducted Chibok
girls even when CDS Alex Badeh earlier claimed they knew
where the Chibok girls are kept.
Boko Haram recently pledged allegiance
to ISIS which the latter accepted. ISIS in Yemen claimed responsibility for the recent terrorist attack on a
mosque that killed about 137 and wounded 350 people as well as the Tunisian Museum attack that killed about 20 people. Yemen is on the brink right
now, the United States has pulled its remaining personnel from that country. ISIS
reportedly posted purported addresses and photos of 100 US
military they want supporters to kill. What are the far-reaching implications of Boko Haram’s
allegiance, romance with ISIS in view of the foregoing? Does this alliance
foretell Boko Haram's regional or global ambitions, recognition or is it borne
out of desperation? With this ‘unholy marriage’, it is probable both groups will
be synergizing and bouncing off ideas from each other. With this alliance, we
can safely say that an ISIS enemy is also a legitimate target for Boko Haram
and vice versa.
Former president Obasanjo reportedly
asserted that Boko Haram has 'legitimate grievances'. What are these supposed grievances?
Answers to these questions will go a long way in helping us understand Boko
Haram; where they are coming from and possibly where they are headed.
Predicting Boko
Haram’s Next Cycle of Terror:
Sometimes to see the way forward, we must take some
step a backwards: dissecting past, current trends/events, and indicators within
and outside our clime. Nigerian security establishment and policy makers must
do away with a penchant for kneejerk approaches, quick fixes and begin to be preemptive.
In the words
of Mr. President, “Probably at the beginning, we, and I mean myself and the
team, we underrated the capacity of Boko Haram,”. No doubt Nigeria(ns) paid dearly
for the poor oversight, lack of imagination of President Jonathan and his
military/security apparatchik.
From staging hit-and-run attacks to
bombing strategic targets, Boko Haram insurgency entered an unprecedented phase
in 2014 when the Sect successfully ventured into amassing swathe of land. At
the peak of its bluster, within six months, Boko Haram seized about 30, 000
square kilometers of land, an area almost the size of Belgium as part of its
Caliphate. It was so surreal!
Boko Haram is surely using this interregnum to re-strategize and
may likely revert to its trialled
hit-and-run tactics (Guerrilla warfare) encompassing more suicide bombings,
lone-wolf terrorism, targeting prominent individuals and attacking critical
national infrastructures. Talking about thinking the unthinkable,
can the Sect recourse
to the use
of chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear (CBRN) weapons, drones or cyber
terrorism? Let us not be quick to conclude that these events are implausible. Recall
an ISIS
drone was downed recently. If Boko Haram could bomb the UN Headquarters in Abuja and also detonated a car bomb near a petrol depot in Apapa, Lagos state, can’t they replicate similar scenarios in
any part of Nigeria they prefer?
Countering
The Narratives of Boko Haram:
Experts agree that military action alone
will not put an end to terrorism, extremism. Solutions must be proffered to the
growing phenomenon of radicalization which is sweeping across the globe. Huffington
Post reported that ‘20,000
Foreign Fighters Flocked To Syria, Iraq’ from around the world. Plausibly 600 ‘foreign fighters’ out of
this number are said to be from the UK, the most prominent been ISIS butcher - Mohammed
Emwazi a.k.a "Jihadi John". Apart from the son of a former Chief
Justice of Nigeria that allegedly enlisted to this fold. Intel suggests some
Boko Haram members are currently undergoing training in the Syrian city of
Raqqa. Do we have statistics of Nigerians that are possibly receiving training
or fighting alongside the Islamic State as foreign fighters?
Robustly policing Nigeria’s 1,479
Illegal Porous Borders
will go a long way in boosting national security. Also, rein in corruption;
improve accountability and boost welfare, morale of troops. Nigeria needs a Public
Early Warning System and a terrorism threat level indicator (the likelihood of a terrorist attack) in Nigeria. For instance,
there are 5
classifications of likelihood of terrorism in the UK: (a) Low
- an attack is unlikely (b)
Moderate
- an attack is possible but not likely (c) Substantial
- an attack is a strong possibility (d) Severe
- an attack is highly likely (e)
Critical
- an attack is expected imminently.
Military action alone will not quell terrorism.
To this end, we also need a war of values and ideas; a concerted and
multifaceted approach geared towards countering the narratives of warped
religious ideologies which BH and their ilk’s relish and propagate. The current
progress been witnessed in the fight against Boko Haram presents an ample opportunity
to the office of Nigeria’s National Security Adviser (NSA), relevant government
establishments, stakeholders and civil society groups to step up Countering
Violent Extremism (CVE) programmes and de-radicalizing genuinely repentant religious
fundamentalists. Laudably, the office of Nigeria's National Security Adviser
threw open channels of communication (phone
numbers) through which the public can interface with it. Mr. NSA, kindly
embrace Social media (Twitter etc) as well if you appreciate open-source
intelligence, whistleblowing, unhampered feedback/information anonymously.
Conclusion
Nigeria must not just win the battle but
must win the peace as well. We must go back to the drawing board, understand
and address the remote and immediate causes of insecurity in
Nigeria. Nigeria’s counterterrorism strategy must be long-term and must envisage, have
solutions to all possible scenarios of terrorism. It is not yet Uhuru; no room
for complacency or pyrrhic dance now.
Whoever wins the 2015 presidential election, arguably the most divisive and
tension-soaked election in the history of Nigeria will have a lot on his table.
A win or lose by either of the two top presidential candidates presents the
following hypothetical outcomes: anger in the North (a fillip to Boko Haram), especially
if the election/result is patently manipulated or rekindled unrest in the Niger
Delta.
Nigerians Unite
Against Insecurity, Terrorism and Insurgency.
Terrorism knows no age, sex, tribe/tribe or religion. Think about this:
terrorism destroys those who practice it, it ain't worth it. Say NO to violence,
bloodletting, terrorism. #TakeBackHumanity!
Written By:
Don Okereke
(Security Analyst/Consultant, Writer/Blogger, Change Agent,
Ex-Serviceman)
Contact
me On: donnuait@yahoo.com
Follow
me on Twitter: @DonOkereke
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