Preamble: Similar to a nation gearing up for war,
the Nigerian space, political entropy is usually supercharged during elections
and the 2019 general election is no exception. There is hysteria in the air as
if the country is going to implode. Land and sea borders are shut preparatory
to elections. The frenzy takes a toll on businesses, foreign direct investment
(FDI) plummets and the Stock
exchange bottoms out. To give us an idea, the volume of shares traded on the
Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) in January 2019 dropped by 42.38 per cent. Analysts
attributed this to ‘’uncertainties surrounding the forthcoming general
elections’’.
The latent hostility
in Nigeria exacerbated when few hours to the commencement of voting, Nigeria’s federal
election umpire - the INEC bandied - ‘’logistics and operational problems’’ – as reason for postponing the 2019
presidential and national assembly/gubernatorial elections by one week. This set the stage for series of shoddy,
inconclusive elections unprecedented in the annals of the country.
Granted
the 2019 general election in Nigeria has come and gone but upshots of the such
as wanton election violence, bloodletting, militarization, interference and invasion
of civic spaces by the military, kidnapping
of election officials continues to reverberate. Also well-documented are random
cases of disenfranchisement and suppression
of voting in opponents’ strongholds, under-aged voting, inconclusive
elections, vote-buying, ballot-box snatching, suspension of collation exercise,
election officials claiming to have declared results ‘’under duress’’, burning
of INEC offices in parts of the country, amongst others. In his election post-mortem for the Council on
Foreign Relations (CFR), Former United States Ambassador to Nigeria; John
Campbell described
Nigeria’s 2019 presidential election as ‘bad news for democracy’. The former
ambassador reportedly asserted that there was evidence that security agents at
some polling units prevented voters from casting their votes, particularly in
opposition strongholds, and intimidated the Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) ad-hoc members of staff. Likewise, two United States-based
organizations - the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International
Republican Institute (IRI) said in its final report
that, “The 2019 general elections fell significantly short of standards set in
2015. Citizens’ confidence in elections was shaken,” said Dr. Daniel Twining,
IRI President.
This write-up is aimed at appraising Nigeria’s
2019 general election especially as it pertains to election security and
reported brazen military interference or intervention as Nigeria’s election umpire - the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC)
aptly referred to it. This essay also advocates for inter-alia: a demilitarized
Nigerian civilian space, Diaspora and E-voting.
On
Military Interference In Nigerian Elections And Civic Spaces
As I was gathering my thoughts for this essay, late professor Pius Adesanmi’s piece titled, ‘’Is The Nigerian Army Teachable?’’ flashed through my mind. Expressing his
disgust on the perennial and mundane way and manner the Nigerian military
usurps the Constitutional role of the police and repeatedly thrusts itself on
civic spaces, Pius submits in the aforesaid piece, ‘’the issue for me is this utterly reprehensible idea of the military
and their tanks in civic spaces. I
have written about it in English. I have written about it in Pidgin. I have
used every conceivable Nigerian way and manner of communication to get people
to understand that it is not normal. You cannot use soldiers and their tanks
for routine law enforcement. Even in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is still law
enforcement by police’’. In Pius
Adesanmi’s words, ‘’even the regularity with which one reads statements from
the Nigerian military would be a very serious issue if we had close to 15%
civic consciousness in our society. They are always injecting themselves into
symbolic civic spaces of meaning. Two Danfo conductors will fight in Lagos; the
army will issue a statement. Five market women will fight in Ibadan, the army
will issue a statement. Secondary school boys will riot in Sokoto, the army
will issue a statement’’.
Nigeria is evidently one of the most militarized countries in the world. The Chief of Army Staff, Lt-Gen. Tukur Buratai, narrates that the
Nigerian Army deployed troops ‘in 32 out of the 36 states of the federation
battling terrorism, kidnapping, cattle rustling, pipeline vandalism, communal
clashes, and other forms of insecurity’. A recent Premium Times publication captioned,
‘’Army Bans
Sale Of Petroleum Products In Jerry Cans’’, buttresses late professor Adesanmi’s
submission. Apparently, the Nigerian Army recently placed a total ban on the
sale of petroleum products in jerry cans in three states - Borno, Yobe and
Adamawa affected by the Boko Haram insurgency. An army spokesman, Ado Isa, said
in a statement that the decision was because Boko Haram insurgents are making
use of fuel contained in jerry cans. While we don’t have issues with the intent,
the mental picture is that there is some kind of military rule and the
Constitution has been suspended in the aforementioned states. The Nigerian
military must learn how to deploy soft-power. A less blatant yet efficacious approach
to achieve this purpose would be for the Army to convince, influence governors
of the aforesaid states to ban the sale of petroleum products, citing security
implications.
The Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room decries
what it referred to as ‘’the militarization of the country’s electoral process
is a troubling one as this is not just about the presence of military
officials, but the actions of our intelligence agencies, the use of the
military by the political class and the partisanship and non-recourse to rules
of engagement of our armed forces”. The European Union Observation Mission to
Nigeria says
soldiers barred them from monitoring elections in Rivers State. Addressing
journalists, the Chief Observer, Maria Arena, noted that they came to Nigeria
on the invitation of INEC to monitor the elections and make recommendations. In
her words, “Observers, including EU observers, were denied access to collation
centres in Rivers, apparently by military personnel. This lack of access for
observers compromises transparency and trust in the process’’. Similarly, the UK Government condemned
military interference in the March 9 governorship and State House of Assembly
elections in Rivers State.
Two civil society groups, the Save Democracy
Women (SDW) and Impact Future Nigeria (IFN), are amongst the groups that staged
a peaceful protest over what they called “the militarization of the 2019
general elections”. IFN convener May Uneku blamed the low voter turnout — just
35 percent — on the heavy presence of troops in the streets. “We condemn in
totality the involvement of the military in our elections,” she was quoted as saying
in local media. “During the just-concluded polls, people were killed. The
elections were a total charade because there are video and pictorial evidence
of people screaming for their lives, military men were harassing and shooting
people.”
The unprecedented, indiscriminate, illegal
deployment of military personnel to clamp down, harass, intimidate and stifle
opposition candidates and strongholds during the 2019 general election is to
say the least, antithetical to our collective aspirations as a country and contravenes
democratic expectations. Agreed election militarization in Nigeria predates the
Buhari administration but events that played out during the 2019 election
suggests this administration may have upped the ante. If this ugly practice is
unchecked and the masterminds are not prosecuted, what transpired in 2019 would
be a child’s play in 2023.
Whither The Army Panel
Investigating Military Interference?
Aftermath
of the massive outcry that greeted the embarrassing role the military played
during the 2019 general elections, the
Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen. Tukur Buratai on Friday March 15, 2019, inaugurated a Committee to investigate allegations of misconduct against its
personnel during the general elections. Headed by Major Gen T.A Gagariga, “The
committee’s Terms of Reference centered on thoroughly investigating the
activities, actions and/or inactions of Nigerian Army Personnel in all the
States that alleged one infraction/wrong doing or the other. The Army committee
had up-to 31st of March to submit its report. Three months after
the inauguration of the Army panel, nothing is heard about the outcome of the
panel’s investigation. The Army we know, will most likely exonerate their own and
blame it on the infamous ‘’unknown soldiers’’. And this will have far-reaching
consequences. According
to a retired director of the State Security Service (DSS), Dr. Toyin Akanle,
“The military needs to get to the root of this issue, if not, before they know
it, the confidence of the people in the military would be completely eroded.
This is because for the people to see people in military uniforms snatching
ballot boxes and intimidating even INEC officials, it is not the best…''.
On
Election Violence, Vote-Buying in Nigeria
The United States
government says reports
it garnered from observers groups; voter intimidation, vote buying,
interference by security forces, and violence marred the electoral process in
parts of Nigeria. Two Nigerian security research groups reports
that plausibly 600 people may have died in election-related violence from the
start of campaigning in November 2018 to the end of the presidential election. One
of the prominent victims is a federal lawmaker who represents Lagelu/Akinleye
constituency of Oyo state, Hon. Temitope Olatoye (a.k.a Sugar) who was shot in Lalupon,
Ibadan on 9 March 2019. In another
instance, an army officer and three soldiers were reportedly killed in southern
Rivers and Bayelsa states while the Rivers state governor, Nyesom Wike pointedly
accused the military of complicity in the killing of 16 people in Abonnema. Corroborating, the Situation Room cites the ‘’prevalence
of vote-buying in Adamawa, Sokoto, Lagos, Delta, Enugu, Ekiti, Bauchi, Benue, Nasarawa,
Plateau, Kwara, Zamfara, Kebbi, Oyo, Kano and Osun States within the range of
N500 and N5,000’’. Not surprised about the violence in parts of the country
during the election because my 2018 analysis
titled, ‘’Nigeria 2019 Elections: Threat, Political Risk Assessment’’
prognosticated it.
On
The Random Arson on INEC Offices
Between February
3rd and February 12th, 3 offices of the Independent National Electoral
Commission (INEC) including that of Isialangwa South Local
Government area of Abia State, Qua’anpan Local Government Area of Plateau, and
at Awka in Anambra state recorded fire incidents. In the same vein, the office of the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) in Isiala Mbano, Okigwe senatorial zone,
Imo state was razed by fire.
These incidents – arson led to destruction of sensitive election materials such
as Permanent Voter Cards, ballot boxes, card readers, electronic and manual
voters register and stoppage of collation. Some analysts believe that burning
INEC office or election materials are usually orchestrated by unscrupulous,
desperate politicians to deplete the votes and undermine the chances of their opponent especially in the
opponent’s stronghold. It behooves on the INEC to ensure that their offices and
election materials are safeguarded. Going forward, the INEC must invest in good
fire alarm and suppressant systems.
Three
months after the elections, the INEC is yet to prosecute masterminds of
election violence, rigging. The energy the INEC dissipates in pushing
for the speedy passage of the Electoral
Offences Commission Bill lying fallow at the National Assembly, can be
channeled into prosecuting electoral offenders for electoral offences under the extant laws enshrined in the
Constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria. Impunity becomes a
norm when people don’t pay for their crimes.
Employing Social Media, Technology For Election Security
Granted
there are national security and cybersecurity implications such as hacking,
election interference, disinformation, weaponized information or fake news, but on the flip
side, it is evident that social media intelligence (SOMINT), open-source intelligence (OSINT), geospatial
(Imagery) intelligence and other innovative technologies – artificial intelligence-powered big data
analytics, can serve as an early warning system to monitor, map or geolocate sporadic
election violence, malpractices such as voter intimidation and harassment, vote
buying, rigging, amongst other electoral
infractions, in
real-time. This was part of my submission in my
presentation on ’The Role of
Technology and Youth in Election Security in Nigeria’’ during the Nigeria
Election Security Summit 2019, an event organised
by the Africa Security Forum (UK), ASF (Nigeria Chapter) in partnership with
Africa Counter Terrorism and Security Academy. In this light, social
media-savvy and active citizens can crowd-source,
play pivotal role in election security or conflict mitigation by disseminating
accurate information, actionable intelligence that would help counter provocative
misinformation and rein in violence.
For instance, analysis of
social media posts, hashtags or tweets can help detect demographics of rising
tensions, frustration, and calls for violence. It is high time we fine-tuned such innovations in our election
security management in Nigeria. Perhaps our security agencies or election umpire
can synergize with the Armed Conflict Location
& Event Data Project (ACLED) which does a good job collating and mapping
data on reported political violence incidents and protest events across Africa
and beyond. Other countries are also embracing social media in monitoring
election violence. During the 2018 elections in Kenya, Nairobi-based social
enterprise named - Ushahidi (a Swahili word for testimony), encouraged Kenya's
active 7 million Facebook users to use Messenger bots to report incidents of
voter suppression, ballot issues and, especially, election-related violence. Similarly,
Ghana-based independent media and civil society organization - Penplusbytes
which has so far been involved in election reportage in Cote d’Ivoire, Niger,
Ghana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Mauritania, Botswana, Togo, Guinea and
Liberia, monitors social media in real time with a view to ‘’identifying and
deflecting electoral malpractices, electoral violence, fake news, hate speech
and disinformation during elections’’.
Time To Explore Electronic Voting,
Allow Nigerians In Diaspora Vote
Agreed
there are cybersecurity concerns and fear of the unknown about electronic
voting but the benefits of electronic voting include the fact that it will cut
down election cost, uphold the accuracy and integrity of our election process
and certainly boost turnout by engaging parts of the electorate not usually
interested, or able, to get to their polling units. The debate over INEC’s
Server or no Server comes to mind…Naysayers would say ‘Nigeria is not ripe for
electronic voting’ just like they tell Nigeria is not ripe for ‘State police’. Is
there anything we are ever ripe for? We must be forward-thinking and move with
the rest of the world.
The vice chancellor
of the Lagos state university, Prof. Olanrewaju Fagbohun, is one of those who believe that electronic voting is possible
in Nigeria. Countries
that have adopted e-voting include Brazil, Belgium, Romania, Namibia, Romania,
Switzerland, among others. Brazil introduced electronic
voting since 1996, when the initial tests were carried in the state of Santa
Catarina. By year 2000, all Brazilian elections became fully electronic. These countries assert that electronic voting
enabled their electorate to trust election results because of its transparency,
security and paucity of human error.
Similarly, I think it is high
time we stopped disenfranchising Nigerians in Diaspora. They should be allowed
to vote from wherever they domicile in the world. It is not rocket science and
I don’t want to hear that ‘Nigeria is not ripe for Diaspora voting’. Many
countries are doing it, all we need do is take a cue. Recall that the World Bank
submitted that
Nigerians living abroad (Diaspora) sent home $22 billion in 2017, the highest
in the Sub-Saharan region, and the fifth highest in the world. The least we can
do to reciprocate them is allow them have a say in who runs the affairs of
their country. This
is the best gift that Chairman/CEO of the Nigerian Diaspora Commission, Mrs.
Abike Dabiri-Erewa will give to Nigerians living in Diaspora.
Conclusion
The Nigerian military MUST be apolitical. They have
no business meddling in Nigeria’s electoral process or invading civic spaces. The
police and other security agencies should be empowered, funded and trained to play
their Constitutional role while the military sticks to its forte. The Supreme
Court rules on the specific, perhaps peripheral role, that the military could
play during elections. The Independent National Election Commission (INEC) must
improve transparency and integrity of elections in Nigeria. It behooves on them
to promptly prosecute perpetrators of election violence or electoral offences
to serve as deterrent to would-be perpetrators. Let us be forward-thinking;
allow Nigerians in Diaspora to vote and let us earnestly explore the
feasibility of electronic voting in Nigeria. It may be the panacea to vote
buying, ballot-box snatching, and election violence.
©Don
Okereke,
a security analyst, consultant, a writer, researcher, a subject matter expert and
security thought leader in Nigeria.
June 28,
2019
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