It
has been a year since the UN Security Council in its wisdom decided that it was
a benefit to the Central African Republic for the Russian Federation to be
granted a waiver on an arms embargo and send arms there[1].
While this idea was being debated in New York the United States, France and the
United Kingdom grudgingly gave their approval to this concept. The blowback
from this move is radiating through the continent as we speak.
The
first question is what would compel Russia take such action? The easy answer is
to some people Africa is not a major security concern. Therefore it is not an
issue to be watched closely until some event occurs that brings the situation
into focus. Another explanation could be addressed by the phrase “Nature abhors
a vacuum.” As the United States and other powers seem to withdraw from African
Interests Russia feels that it is in their interests assert their influence.
The
apparent disinterest in the situation inside the Central African Republic by the west and the neighbors
plays out to a tune that is seen as similar to heavy handed responses towards
Sudan in the past has driven these regimes into their hands to conduct
business. We are seeing this play out with new deals by Moscow with Eritrea,[4]
Eastern Libya[5]and
Mozambique. These are countries for the most part have been shunned for Human
Rights violations and other governance issues.
The
move into Mozambique is proving to be an interesting one. Already there is an
American PMC currently operating in the Country. This group is headed by Erik
Prince[6]
who gained fame and scorn with the operations of Blackwater during its time as
a contractor operating in Iraq after the US Invasion during the administration
of George W. Bush. The situation in the Northeastern part of the country is a
matter of concern for a year.[7]
A series of random attacks that seem not to be a matter of concern to the
authorities in Maputo makes this move to potentially become a flashpoint
between the United States and the Russian Federation. What happens when these
two combustible elements collide? Will there be a quick disengagement? This is
a scenario that is both scary and tantalizing. There have been fears that these
attacks have been launched by Jihadists Elements moving into the region as some
groups actively seek a new safe haven.
So
considering how insular Russians can be how have they reacted to anyone who has
been attempting to conduct any oversight? The situation in the Central African
Republic has been unique for the actions of the accounting of the Russian
Government to the UN in the number of weapons and amount of ammunition that has
been sent to the strife torn country. Compare that to the reaction of Wagner
group when some Russian Independent Journalists tried to investigate their actions
in the country.[8]
This incident did raise some alarm bells regarding the actions of these group
in Central Africa.
It
is felt by some that the US and EU place too strict of a series of benchmarks
on several of these states that restricts them from conducting any business
with these states. This pushes them into the hands of Russia and other states
where Business trumps other concerns. As long as these leaders get paid it
doesn’t matter what happens inside their borders.
The
influx of Russian PMCs may show that just like the US Military it may be
overextended by current Operations in both Ukraine and in Syria. Outsourcing
these efforts also gives the Kremlin what it feels a modicum of deniability
that it often uses to temper critical voices from the International Community.
Written
By: Scott Morgan
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