S/election seasons in Nigeria are synonymous with
war situations, a do-or-die affair. Barely six months to Nigeria’s defining 2019
general elections, governance and business activities are almost at a
standstill. Machiavellian intrigues, seismic political stunts, inter-party defections,
impeachment plots are now the new normal in Nigeria. The political wheeling and dealing playing out in Nigeria is having a butterfly-effect on the already fragile economy, volatile
political climate, security, geo-political risk, instability.
For the second year in a row, the Fragile States Index, FSI, released
by the Washington DC-based think-tank, Fund for Peace, FFP, ranked Nigeria as the 13th least stable
country in the world. Similarly, Nigeria ranks 148 out of 168 on the 2018 Global Peace Index (GPI), by the Institute for Economics and Peace.
Assault on Nigeria’s
Democracy
In what can be described as a blatant and embarrassing assault on
Nigeria’s democracy, Tuesday, August 7, 2018, operatives of Nigeria’s Secret
Police, the Department of State Services (DSS), sealed
off the entrance to the National Assembly premises in Abuja.
Hitherto, the National Assembly entrance is manned by
policemen and internal security operatives. Angered by Gestapo style
invasion, Senator Rafiu Ibrahim who was denied access into the National
Assembly premises by the DSS operatives asked them, ‘’Has the military taken
over?’’ Quoting a ranking National Assembly member, Pulse
reports that, “30 APC senators allegedly met with the sacked Director
General (DG) of the DSS, Mr. Lawal Daura at midnight of Monday, August 6
at the DSS headquarters’’. The meeting was reportedly aimed at strategizing how
to impeach the senate president and the deputy senate president on August 7,
2018.
Recall that prior to now, precisely on
Tuesday, July 24, Policemen and
EFCC operatives simultaneously besieged the official residences of the President of the Senate, Dr Bukola
Saraki, and that of his deputy, Dr. Ekweremadu. Reacting to the siege at the
National Assembly, a former Department of State official, in a tweet, Mr.
Matthew Page says, ‘’keep in mind that DSS is Nigeria’s lead counterterrorism
agency. Instead of focusing its attention and resources on combating one of the
world’s most vicious terrorist groups, it is toying with Nigeria’s democratic
institutions (flawed though they may be)’’.
Insecurity Threatens 2019
Elections in Nigeria
There’s a raging debate for and against the militarization of
elections in Nigeria. While some people extenuate this penchant on the grounds
of insecurity in the country, others say it is an aberration. A while ago, the
Christian Association of Nigeria, CAN, in the 17 Southern States bemoaned the unrelenting insecurity pervading the country, particularly in
the North Central zone. The Christian body believes that insecurity poses grave
threat to the conduct of the 2019 general elections. The Irish Ambassador to Nigeria, Mr. Sean Hoy says the international community, particularly the European Union, EU,
is concerned over the threat to peace and the rising cases of violence in some
parts of Nigeria ahead of the conduct of the general election in the country. In
a related development, the recently sacked Director General of Nigeria's secret
police, the Department of State Service DSS), Lawal Daura agrees that insecurity is a major threat to the 2019 general election in
Nigeria.
A case in point is the recent Ekiti gubernatorial
election where 4,390 soldiers reportedly complemented 30,000 police officers deployed for the election. Interestingly, the massive deployment of
security operatives neither stopped nor dissuaded the brazen vote-buying
witnessed during the Ekiti election. If 30,000 policemen were deployed in one
state for a gubernatorial election, then more than one million policemen would
be needed during the 2019 elections which will be held simultaneously across the
36 states in Nigeria. Snag is, Nigerian security agencies are currently stretched
to their elastic limits as the country grapples with a near collapse of its internal
security mechanism. The Chief of Army Staff, Lt-Gen. Tukur Buratai says
troops are deployed in 32 out of the 36 states of the federation battling terrorism, kidnapping, cattle rustling, pipeline vandalism,
communal clashes, and other forms of insecurity. The erstwhile Chairman of Nigeria's Police Service Commission, Mr.
Mike Okiro, a retired Inspector-General of Police, opines that of the
approximately 400,000 police personnel in Nigeria, 250,000 were attached to private individuals and unauthorized
persons, leaving just about 150,000 to secure close to 200 million people. This
is one of the reasons insecurity persists in Nigeria and why insecurity may
jeopardize the 2019 general elections. The
implication is that should there be an external aggression or breakdown of rule
and order simultaneously in parts of the country, the security agencies will be
overwhelmed.
2019 Elections Heightens Political
Risk
As said earlier, electioneering in Nigeria is akin to warfare. The National Assembly is yet to reconvene let alone deliberate on the N254 billion budgeted for the 2019 general elections. There are fears that the 2019 presidential election would be
rigged or declared ‘’inconclusive’’. Nigeria’s former spy chief, Alhaji Abdulrahman of the National
Security Organization, NSO (now DSS), made this assertion in an interview. The
prevailing cloud of uncertainty in Nigeria is having a knock-on effect on
Nigeria’s economy and on political risk. Business
Day Newspaper reports
that, ‘’Businesses are putting critical investment decisions on ice ahead of
the 2019 elections amid rising uncertainty over the outcome of the elections
and its economic impact’’. Dangote Cement and IHS towers reportedly postponed
their planned initial public offerings on the London stock exchange and
Nigerian stock exchange respectively, until after the election. Nigeria’s
Guardian Newspapers argues
that, ‘’amid growing concerns over the 2019 general elections and its economic
impact, developers in Nigeria’s real estate sector are slowing down
constructions and apprehensive of new business deals’’. Another report
put it this way: ‘’political intrigues ahead of the 2019 general elections have
made stock market investors lose N729
billion in three months of decline’’. The Chief Research Officer of Investdata
Consulting Limited, Ambrose Omodion, says investors are currently walking in fear
of political risks, believing that violence in the country could trigger panic
and massive dumping of shares. Apparently, stock market
investors and traders, especially foreigners are concerned about the political
risks associated with the 2019 elections and some of them may have resorted to massive
sell-off of their shares. It’s unlikely that the moribund Nigerian economy will
recover anytime soon, probably after the 2019 general elections. It’s going to
be a long wait!
Risk of Electoral
Violence in Nigeria in 2019
Electoral or political violence, ethno-religious conflict are recurring
decimals in Nigeria. History, prevailing goings-on in Nigeria, and open-source
intelligence prognosticates electoral, political violence prior to, during or
after the 2019 general elections.
Recall that more than 800
people were killed in three days of deadly
post-election demonstrations and communal violence in 12 northern states of
Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Niger, Sokoto,
Yobe, and Zamfara aftermath of the April 16, 2011 presidential election.
Similarly, a 2015 pre-election violence report compiled by Nigeria’s National Human Rights Commission (NHRC)
says 58 people were killed in 61 incidences of election violence in 22 states. It is not surprising that a recent pre-election
assessment by the US-based National Democratic Institute (ND) and the
International Republican Institute (NRI) warn of security threats to the 2019 election in Nigeria. An electoral
violence risk assessment carried out by the United
States Institute of Peace (USIP) suggests possible escalation of electoral
violence in Nigeria before the 2019 general elections. USIP’s fellow, Mr. Aly
Verjee posits in a paper titled, “Nigeria’s 2019 elections: Change, Continuity and the
Risk to Peace, Summary of Key Findings’’, that ‘’the spade of political
instability and internal crisis, especially in the ruling All Progressives
Congress (APC), could worsen the enduring democratic system before the
elections’’. Similarly, while presenting
the findings of its 2019 ‘’Election Security Threat Assessment’’ pilot study
conducted across twelve states drawn from Nigeria’s six geo-political zones,
the CLEEN Foundation listed hate speech, drug abuse and biased security agents
as potential threats to the 2019 general elections. To forestall possible violence
during the 2019 general elections, in his ‘Report of the Secretary-General on the activities of the
United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS)’, presented to the
UN Security Council, the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres hints
about plans to reactivate the National Peace Committee of Nigeria, which
played critical roles in ensuring a violence-free presidential election in 2015.
Nigerian States At Risk of
Political Violence
Some
of the dynamics that could give birth to political violence include: incumbency
factor or desperation to impose a successor, federal ‘might’ and bent to
‘capture some states, antecedent of electoral violence, ethno-religious
fault-lines, internal party wrangling and defections, proliferation of illegal weapons
and existence of bandits, terrorists/militant groups, godfatherism, brazen monetization
of electoral politics and trend in vote-buying, partisanship of government
security agencies, amongst other factors. States at
the risk of political violence, upheaval in Nigeria in 2019 include:
(1)
Kano – Statistics shows that while
Lagos state boasts of the highest number (6 million) registered voters in Nigeria;
Kano comes second with about 5 million. These two states are vote-banks and
election battlegrounds that can make or mar the chances of a presidential
candidate. Buhari polled nearly two million (precisely 1,903,999) votes in Kano
in the 2015 presidential election. Now the dynamics have changed and it’s
unlikely that Buhari will be able to re-enact such a feat in 2019 because his
top challenger will also be a northerner. Secondly, a grass-root politician and
former governor of Kano state, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso, now a serving Senator
together with the Deputy governor of Kano state, 6 ‘Kwankwassiya’ members of
the Kano State House of Assembly recently defected from the ruling APC to the
PDP. Kano is arguably the capital of ethno-religious violence in Nigeria.
Knowing how volatile Kano is, any attempt by the ruling APC to manipulate
events in Kano state is an invitation to violence.
(2)
Benue – The passage of anti-open
grazing law in Benue by the state House of Assembly led to orgy of violence and
sporadic killings by suspected herdsmen. Elected in 2015 under the APC, the
Benue state governor – Samuel Ortom recently defected from the APC to the PDP. Ortom
fell out with the APC over the inability of the federal government and security
agencies to rein in the brazen bloodletting in his domain. Interestingly, aftermath
of Ortom’s defection, Nigeria’s anti-corruption agency – the EFCC froze the
account of the Benue state government. Matthew Page says, ‘’there is a strong correlation between leaving
the ruling party and being suddenly investigated for corruption – and a strong
correlation between staying in the ruling party and such investigations failing
to materialize’’.
(3)
Kogi – There is tribal rivalry and
pent-up anger between the various tribes in Kogi state. Governor Yahaya Bello
is the first minority from the Ebira tribe to govern Kogi state. Word out there
is that Bello has performed below expectations. Civil servants in Kogi state
are reportedly owed upwards of sixteen
months salary arrears. Governor Bello is also
enmeshed in a long-drawn-out feud with Dino Melaye, senator representing Kogi
West who has now defected from the APC to the PDP. Bello’s reelection bid hangs
in the balance and any attempt to manipulate the electoral process in his
favour will boomerang. As a prelude to what to expect in
Kogi state in 2019, the August 11, 2018 bye-election to fill the vacant Lokoja
/Kogi seat in House of Representatives was reportedly marred by vote-buying, ballot
box-snatching, and violence culminating in the death of two persons.
(4)
Rivers – Otherwise known as ‘’Rivers
of Blood’’, is a crime, and political violence hotspot in Nigeria. Massive
proliferation of illegal weapons and militancy contributes to this trend. No
fewer than 150 people were reportedly killed in politically-related violence that enveloped the state
during the build-up to the 2015 general elections. Notwithstanding the
deployment of 1,500 policemen for election security during the August 8, 2018
bye-election for the Port Harcourt Constituency III State Assembly seat, heavy
shooting, attack on election officials and hijack of elections materials were reported
in Port Harcourt. The Independent Electoral Commission subsequently suspended the election due to widespread violence. The two major political
parties – the APC and the PDP are currently finger-pointing as to who was
responsible for the mayhem. Rivers State Governor, Nyesom Wike, accused
the Police of sabotaging the bye-election. In his words, “Instead of providing
security for voters and INEC officials the Police brazenly colluded with
political thugs of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to subvert the
democratic process and denied the people of Port Harcourt Constituency (iii)
their rights to free, fair and credible elections’’. Wike questioned the
ability of the police to guarantee security during the 2019 elections. He said,
“This situation is worrisome. If the Nigerian Police cannot secure and
guarantee the peaceful and successful conduct of election in a single State
Constituency of 8 wards, then what will happen in 2019 when they would be
contending with 319 electoral wards and 4,442 polling units across 23 Local
Government Areas of the State?” The political
violence that marred the by-election in Rivers State is a foretaste of what to
expect in 2019 as the two political gladiators – Wike and Amaechi will likely
lock horns for political supremacy. There is also another angle to events playing out in Rivers State. The Buhari administration’s much-talked-about skewed
anti-corruption posturing and sleight of hand in stifling Opposition strongholds
is patent in Rivers where Nigeria’s anti-corruption agency - the Economic
and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) is currently investigating Zenith Bank
CEO, Mr. Peter Amangbo, over alleged financial irregularities involving
Nigeria’s second-largest bank. The EFCC avers that Zenith Bank disregarded
suspicious transactions carried out on behalf of the Rivers state government
which amounted to about $323 million in the last three years. Word on the
street is that Governor Wike is the chief financier of the opposition People’s
Democratic Party (PDP). Hence there’s a robust notion that Abuja is using the EFCC
to rein the financial nerve centre of the opposition.
(5)
Imo – Governor Rochas Okorocha is
fighting the political battle of his life. His bent to foist his Chief of Staff
and son-in-law, Mr. Uche Nwosu to succeed him have polarized the APC in Imo
state.
Uche Nwosu is from the same Orlu senatorial zone with
Rochas and Orlu zone has produced the state governor in the last sixteen years
hence many people say it is unconscionable for Rochas to contemplate imposing
another Orlu son to succeed him. A conglomeration of APC stalwarts known
as the ‘’Allied forces’’ comprising Senators Ifeanyi
Ararume, Benjamin Uwajumogu, Osita Izunaso, Hon. Nwajiuba, recently impeached
deputy governor – Eze Madumere, amongst others, are opposed to Okorocha’s gambit. Rochas was outsmarted by the
‘’Allied forces’’ during the first APC ward, state congress Imo state. The PDP
or APGA is poised to benefit from the in-fighting in Imo APC.
(6)
Kaduna – Apart from Kano state,
Kaduna is another notorious flash-point for communal, ethno-religious or
political violence. The tribal, cultural and religious dichotomy and rivalry between
southern (predominantly Christians) and northern Kaduna (largely Muslims) is
often exported to the political terrain. The by-product of the struggle for
power, territory, economic and agricultural resources is sporadic electoral, inter-communal
violence, and reprisal attacks. The Kaduna state governor, Mallam Nasir El
Rufai is having a running battle with all the three senators from the state
namely; Senators Danjuma La’ah, Uthman Suleiman Hunkuyi and Shehu Sani. El-Rufai’s
campaign chief in 2015, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, Senator Suleiman Hunkuyi and the
deputy Speaker of Kaduna state House of Assembly, John Audu Kwaturu have dumped
the ruling APC to the PDP. Prior to his defection, the Kaduna state government
demolished a building belonging to Hunkuyi. Governor El Rufai is rumoured to
have masterminded the demolishing of Hunkuyi’s house. Domineering El Rufai
cursed the three senators representing the state for opposing a $350 million
loan being sought from the World Bank by his government.
(7)
Taraba – An indigene of Taraba
state, erstwhile minister of defence and Chief of Army Staff, Lt. Gen TY
Danjuma (retired) is one of the prominent retired Generals seemingly opposed to
the reelection bid of president Buhari. A while ago he accused the Nigerian Armed Forces of aiding attacks by bandits on
communities across the country. Danjuma says, “The armed forces are not
neutral…They collude with the armed bandits that kill people, kill Nigerians.
They facilitate their movement. They cover them’’. Adamawa, Borno and Yobe – Continued
Boko Haram attacks on soft and hard targets, mass abduction in northeast
Nigeria similar to the Chibok or Dapchi schoolgirls abductions, could
jeopardize elections in those climes.
(8)
Plateau – The
Plateau State Government recently imposed a dusk to dawn curfew
in three local government areas – Riyom, Barkin Ladi and Jos South, following
the escalation violence in that axis. A deadly and sporadic cycle of political
and ethno-religious crisis over the rights and political representation of
‘indigenes’ (predominantly Christians) and ‘settlers’ (predominantly) in Jos,
the capital of Plateau State, has morphed into a long-drawn-out violence that
has spread to many parts of the state. Plausibly 7,000 people have been reportedly
killed since late 2001 due to the intermittent wave of violence within Jos.
(9)
Zamfara – Nearly 3,000 persons
have been reportedly killed and 682 villages, towns were sacked by so-called ‘bandits’
in Zamfara State in the last two years. Incessant attacks in Zamfara state is
unlikely to be reined in before the general elections.
(10)
Akwa Ibom – In 2011, more than
a dozen people were apparently murdered when election-related violence erupted between
supporters of the Peoples' Democratic Party [PDP] and the opposition Action
Congress [AC] during a political rally in Akwa Ibom state. The cold war between the erstwhile governor of Akwa Ibom state and now
a senator, Godswill Akpabio, and his political godson, governor Udom Emmanuel
may dovetail into full-blown political violence. Akpabio has since defected
from the PDP to the APC.
(11)
Sokoto – The Sokoto State Governor, Alhaji Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, along with
the Speaker of the state House of Assembly, Alhaji Salihu Maidaji, and 17 other
members of the assembly defected to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). There
are insinuations that the Sultan Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar supported the
defection of Sokoto state Governor from the APC to the PDP. The Sultanate
Council of Sokoto recently dissociated itself from a post. A political face-off
is brewing between the Sokoto state Governor, Tambuwal and his predecessor in
office, Senator Aliyu Wamakko after Tambuwal defected from the All Progressives
Congress, APC to the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP.
Recommendations:
There is no gainsaying the fact that lack of transparency is an
invitation to violence. In its report, “Deepening Democracy: A Strategy for
Improving the Integrity of Elections Worldwide,” the Global Commission on
Elections, Democracy, and Security defines elections with integrity as “any
election that is based on the democratic principles of universal suffrage and
political equality…and is professional, impartial, and transparent in its
preparation and administration throughout the electoral cycle.” In the light of
this, the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) must ensure and improve
the integrity of elections in Nigeria. Similarly, perpetrators of election violence
or electoral offences must be prosecuted to serve as deterrent. As Obama
rightly said, Africa needs strong institutions not strong men. Democratic processes,
institutions and the security/anti-corruption agencies must be strengthened to
be independent, neutral.
Written By:
© Don Okereke, security consultant/analyst, researcher, writer,
active citizen.
August 20, 2018
Twitter: @DonOkereke
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