Preamble: This
essay aims to critically analyze recent upshots: the relapse to agitation, militancy,
bombing of crude oil and gas installations in the Niger Delta. Prevailing
realities and information will be juxtaposed to help us reconcile or connect
the dots between the remote, immediate causes of this reincarnated Niger Delta agitation
and plausible socioeconomic and security implications.
Relapse To Militancy, Hostilities in
the Niger Delta
Notwithstanding
the adverse environmental impact on their domain, a feigned new kid on the
block - Niger Delta Avengers (NDA) seem to relish blowing up crude oil and gas
installations in the Niger Delta with a view to crippling the Nigerian economy
or bringing the Nigerian government to the negotiating table. In one of its rambling
publication on its website dated April 17, 2016, the Niger Delta Avengers
described itself as ‘’a group of educated and well-travelled individuals that
are poised to take the Niger Delta struggled (sic) to a new height that has
never been seen in this nation before’’.
Lending
its tacit support, a seemingly resurrected militant group - Niger
Delta Liberation Force (NDLF) declared through its
spokesman, one Mark Anthony that ‘’the bombing of pipelines in the Niger Delta
would continue’’. In view of the fact that Niger Delta Avengers forewarned
of their imminent attacks prior to now and successfully
carried out those attacks notwithstanding military presence in that vicinity, tells
how precarious the situation is and that these chaps mean ‘business’.
New Wave Of Violence in The Niger
Delta: Connecting The Dots
Recall
that quest for resource control, earlier hostilities – kidnap for ransom and
extortion (KRE), bombing of crude oil and gas installations bottomed out
aftermath of mouthwatering amnesty largesse – monthly stipends, oversea
scholarships, ‘juicy’ pipeline protection contracts (some say it was akin to
giving a valuable to a ‘thief’ for safekeeping) which previous administration
dangled on repentant Niger Delta militants who traded some of the arms in
exchange for the aforementioned.
Yes,
throwing money at a problem works for a while but it is tantamount to
postponing the evil day. Under the sub-heading - forecasting the future of
kidnapping in Nigeria - in his article published 23 October 2015, titled: ‘’Nigeria’s Thriving Kidnapping Enterprise’’,
this writer postulated a return of militancy, kidnappings in the Niger Delta. Writer
substantiated his assertion in the aforesaid article saying, ‘’the security
situation in the Niger Delta is fluid due to the imminent end to the hitherto
mouth-watering amnesty largesse, scholarships, and crude oil pipeline
protection contracts, amongst others that empowered Niger Delta youths and
birthed nouveau-riche dollar billionaires’’. This prognosis agrees with a
recent report
which cited the kidnapping of 32 seafarers with ransom payments of about
$400,000 paid to crime syndicates who specialize in hijacking vessels in the
Gulf of Guinea within the second quarter of year 2016.
Also
juxtapose current events with overt threats
bandied by prominent Niger Delta militants during a
meeting at Yenagoa Government House prior to the 2015 presidential elections
where they promised war, violence and to take back Niger Delta oil should Mr.
Jonathan lose re-election. Do we need a soothsayer to tell us that sanity and tranquility
will fizzle out in this region aftermath of weaning these dudes’ mouthwatering
contracts, easy money, unfettered access to Aso Rock and a larger-than-life,
power-broker, celebrity, private-jet-flying lifestyle? In addition, there are
also deep-seated grudges by disgruntled militants who were sidelined from the
amnesty largesse. Now it appears these folks are uniting against a common
‘enemy’.
Plausibilities, Security Implications
of Renewed Militancy in The Niger Delta
At
present, Chevron is said to have shut down operation in its Okan offshore
facility leading to loss of 35, 000 barrels per day. Shell
Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Ltd (SPDC) has reportedly evacuated
some staff and declared a force
majeure on Bonny Light crude exports following a
leak possibly caused by an attack on its pipeline. Sequel to successive attacks
on oil installations in the Niger Delta, Bloomberg asserts that crude production dipped to below 1.7 million bpd in Nigeria for
the first time since 1994, pushing Nigeria’s crude oil output
close to a 22
year low hence exerting enormous pressure on Nigeria’s finances
and on the 2016 federal budget. Hostilities in the Niger Delta will definitely
take a toll on foreign direct investment; no one wants to invest in a clime of
uncertainty.
Bearing
the hallmark of militancy in the Niger-Delta, four Nigerian Navy personnel were
reportedly gunned down
in Bayelsa state, South-South Nigeria recently. It was also reported
that militants killed three soldiers attached to the Niger Delta Operation Pulo
Shield in an ambush in Foropa, Southern Ijaw Local Government Area of Bayelsa
State.
With
the die cast, multinationals and establishments in the following Niger Delta
States – Bayelsa, Delta, Rivers and parts of Ondo state should brace up, take
proactive steps against upsurge in violence, kidnappings and destruction of
critical infrastructure – Offshore platforms, Tank farms amongst others in the
coming weeks, months. If push comes to shove and the insinuated
behind-the-scene millions of dollars been dangled by oil majors – Chevron et al
to the militants to allow for repair of blasted pipelines are rebuffed, local
and expatriate staff of oil firms, vessels within and off the coast of the
Niger Delta will be pawns, targets of heightened onslaught.
Open-source
intelligence suggests the Niger Delta Avengers are pretty ambitious. If wishes
were horses, the militants contrive unveiling a ‘Niger Delta Republic’, their
currency, flag and Passport by October, 2016.
What Does The Niger Delta
Avengers, Militants Want?
A
pick of the terms and conditions for truce listed on the website
of the Niger Delta Avengers include:
(a) Immediate
implementation of the report of the 2014 National Conference, failure which
Nigeria will break-up forcefully.
(b) That ownership of crude oil blocks must
reflect 60% for the oil producing people and 40% for the non-oil producing
people. They contend that currently, 80-90% of crude oil blocks are allocated
to northerners.
(c) That
the only Nigerian Maritime University situated in the most appropriate and
befitting place – Okerenkoko, must start the 2015/2016 academic session
immediately.
(d) That Ogoniland and other
places polluted by oil in the Niger Delta must be cleaned up and compensation
paid to all oil producing communities.
(e) That the Niger Delta Amnesty programme must be
well funded and be allowed to continue and run effectively.
(f)
That the leader of the Indigenous People of
Biafra (IPOB), Mr. Nnamdi Kanu, be released unconditionally as instructed by
the court.
If
the tough-talking stance of president Buhari is anything to go by, it is pretty
unlikely the militants can force his hands.
Conclusion
Having
demonstrated capacity for havoc, including expertise for blasting a 48 inches
export pipeline, the latest
threat by the Niger delta Avengers to export their
stock-in-trade to Abuja, Lagos, Calabar, Port Harcourt MUST be taken seriously.
No gainsaying the fact that dudes are moneyed, certainly not lacking in mettle,
they understand the terrain (creeks), are armed with sophisticated weaponry and
expertise hence stamping them out will not be a walk in the park. Recall Boko
Haram was initially dubbed a ragtag Sect but gave the Nigerian military a run
for its money. The Nigerian military and security agencies are currently stretched
out and it doesn’t look like they have the capacity to wage asymmetrical
warfare simultaneously in different parts of the country? An Igbo proverb
suffices: when a tsetse fly roosts on someone’s scrotum, allowing it to remain
is a risky and so is trouncing it with a sledge hammer. The Niger Delta
imbroglio needs a lot of tact and wisdom. Deterrence, prevention is better than
Pyrrhic victory and cheaper than cure.
We
earnestly implore the Niger Delta Avengers and latent militant groups to please
sheathe their sword, rethink regressing to militancy and bombing critical
installations. In addition to the dire economic consequences, their communities
bear the brunt of environment degradation ensuant to such activities.
Written
by:
© Don Okereke
(Security Junkie/Evangelist/Analyst/Consultant,
Ex-serviceman, Researcher, Writer)
Follow
me on Twitter: @donokereke
May,
2016
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