Since mid-November there has been a flurry of terrorist attacks in
Kano, Nigeria’s second largest city, the metropolis of the northern half
of the country, and an ancient center of Islamic culture.
Suicide bombers have carried out attacks on a gas station and a military facility.
Casualties in each episode appear to have been about half a dozen. On
November 28, there was a major attack on the Central Mosque in Kano,
immediately adjacent to the Emir of Kano’s palace.
Casualties were much
higher, perhaps approaching two hundred, according to the Transition Monitoring Group,
a highly respected Nigerian democracy advocacy group that accuses the
government of minimizing the number of victims. The mosque attack has
been condemned by prominent personalities ranging from Pope Francis to
the Sultan of Sokoto, the most senior Islamic traditional ruler in
Nigeria, to President Goodluck Jonathan. On December 10, two female suicide bombers killed at least six people (including themselves) at a market.
What group is responsible for the upsurge of terrorism in Kano? The
conventional answer is ‘Boko Haram,’ a highly diffuse, radical Islamist
jihadist group that aims to destroy the secular Nigerian state. Boko
Haram regularly claims responsibility for its attacks, as was the case
with the Chibok kidnapping. It has not claimed responsibility for the
Central Mosque attack or any other attacks in Kano.
Another alternative might be the radical splinter group, Ansaru. With
connections to jihadist groups outside of Nigeria, it may have
introduced the use of suicide bombers, now a feature of Kano terrorism.
However, following the Central Mosque attack, it apparently issued a
statement of condolence for the victims, in effect condemning the
attack. This is consistent with Ansaru’s previous criticism of Boko
Haram for “killing too many innocent Muslims.” It also indicates that
the perpetrator of the Central Mosque killings, at least, was not
Ansaru.
If not Boko Haram or Ansaru, then who? The grass-roots insurrection
in northern Nigeria appears ever more decentralized. It cannot be ruled
out that there has emerged in Kano a local jihadist group operating
independently of Boko Haram or Ansaru. I find this the most credible, if
unproven, hypothesis. However, there is little hard evidence. Some
residents of Kano suggest that the perpetrators are not necessarily
jihadis at all, but rather “agents provacateurs” with a hazy origin and
agenda but likely somehow connected to the upcoming national elections
on February 14, 2015.
Written By:
John Campbell
Council on Foreign Relations
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