Caveat:
This essay is apolitical;
there is no intent to malign any individual, group or section of the country.
The ensuing analysis is aimed at reconciling the cloaked purpose of the Boko
Haram phenomenon and to proffer solutions. It is only when we can precisely
connect the dots; identify the real bone of contention that we can prescribe
tailored solutions.
The Boko Haram Malady and Futile Prescriptions
The Boko Haram bloodlettings
seem to have defied all prescriptions by the Nigerian government. Akin to
guerrilla warfare, the Sect keeps metamorphosing, playing a catch-me-if-you-can
game, shunning rules of engagement and increasingly embarrassing the Nigerian
Government. Their ability to kidnap hundreds of female students, deploying and
detonating two successive bombings in Abuja, all within a month and the shortcomings
of the current wishy-washy, haphazard approach draws public anger.
Fingerpointing Saga:
A lot of finger pointing
is flying around as to who really sponsors Boko Haram's insurgency campaign in
Nigeria. The ruling party (PDP) reiterates that Boko Haram is the brainchild of
the All Progressives Congress (APC). The PDP and its adherents refer to APC as
"Janjaweed Party". The APC reciprocates the allegations in good
measure. Acerbic and inciting statements credited to some prominent northern
leaders escalate the situation. Interestingly, erstwhile former National
Security Adviser, Lt. General Azazi was said to have fingered the People's
Democratic Party (PDP) in the Boko Haram brouhaha.
Alibi's for Boko Haram's Existence
Extenuating excuses are
bandied as to why Boko Haram thrives. Boko Haram claims it abhors Western
education. They say they are fighting for an Islamic republic. But it is
un-Islamic to wantonly kill, kidnap, and plausibly rape teenage school girls. They
kill their fellow Muslims as well as Christians. Thankfully many Nigerian
Muslims have denounced the barbaric acts of Boko Haram in the guise of
religion. This proves that the Sect's ideology is not purely premised on
religion.
Yes, Youth Hopelessness is Incorporated in Nigeria But...
Unprecedented
unemployment rate, hopelessness and 'radicalization' are also said to fan the
embers of terrorism, insurgency. However the strongholds of Boko Haram
onslaught are not the only under-developed states in Nigeria with high levels
of poverty and youth unemployment. Empirical evidence proves Southern states
are peopled with more unemployed graduates than the northern states. So why are
the unemployed youths from the South not taking up arms against their
fatherland? Also bring to mind that Northerners have held Political Power
longer than any other part of the country, if anything, those Northern leaders
should be held responsible for foisting abject poverty, despondency on their
folks. Talking about ‘radicalization’, it is not only folks from the North-East
of Nigeria that are ‘radicalized’ neither do they have a monopoly of violence.
Plausibly 80% of Nigerians, especially youths across the nook and cranny of the
country, are also ‘radicalized’ by poverty and unemployment. Why are they not
waging war against their country?
The aforesaid inference
is meant to water down the trite notion that Boko Haram is a function of
pervasive unemployment, underdevelopment and poverty on a particular section of
the country. If it is simplistic that unemployment and underdevelopment
automatically transforms folks into terrorists, then plausibly 80% or more
Nigerians have enough justifications to become terrorists. But there seem to be
more to it. Bring to mind that terrorism is capital intensive hence not a poor
man's business. Boko Haram is said to have received millions of dollars worth
of funding in the last few years. One is not trying to completely exonerate the
aforesaid dynamics. If there were to be a ranking for the reasons behind Boko Haram,
unemployment, under-development, poverty, religion et al will probably rank 1-3
on a scale of 10. Having temporarily put down the aforementioned variables that
plausibly fuels terrorism and insurgency in Nigeria, let us juxtapose what some
school of thought contend may be the crux of the matter: a disguised freewheeling quest for political
power.
The Political Dimension:
2015 Presidential Election Angle
President Jonathan
himself emphatically cited that Boko Haram have infiltrated his cabinet, sorry government.
Going by the statement
credited to her lately, Nigeria's Finance Minister Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala also
concurs to the assertion that Boko Haram is the brainchild of unscrupulous
politicians.
In a recent interview
with CNN's Christine Amanpour on the issue of the abducted Chibok girls,
Governor Kashim Shettima of Bornu State said, "it took the President a
while to take action. For the first three weeks, we were politicking. And there
is a whole lot of difference between governance and politics. Instead for us to
pointedly address the problems, we were busy looking for scapegoats.”
An inkling to some deft
political interplay: is it a coincidence that the three northern states under a
'state of emergency' are controlled by the opposition party- the APC? Whereas
the PDP controlled central government is bent on extending the emergency rule,
many Northern elites are strongly opposed to the move citing that the so-called
'state of emergency' have not yielded the desired result. There are also calls
from some quarters for a 'total emergency rule' in those three states that will
entail removing the sitting governors.
The Independent National Electoral Commission's Chairman, Prof. Attahiru
Jega insinuated a while ago that there is a likelihood that elections may not
hold in Bornu, Adamawa and Yobe (APC-controlled states) in 2015 if the violence
and the 'state of emergency' persists till the 2015 general election.
Is it a coincidence that
a disjointed, ragtag Sect suddenly became more sophisticated, virulent and a
'global player'? The escalation of Boko Haram's activities sequel to President
Jonathan's fated usurpation of Power from a northerner make some school of
thought prognosticate that the once sleepy Sect may have transmuted into some
kind of "bargaining chip".
Perhaps the ensuing
analogy reinforces the hypothesis that there is some element of politics in all
of this hoopla. Kabiru Sokoto, a wanted and now convicted terrorist was
apprehended by operatives of the State Security Service in the Borno State
Governor’s Lodge in Abuja but he escaped from detention in broad day light. A
senior police officer, one CP Zakari Biu was fingered and subsequently
dismissed for aiding Kabiru Sokoto's escape. Kabiru Sokoto has since been
jailed, CP Zakari Biu was dismissed from the police (unconfirmed report
suggests he was secretly reinstated and given a soft landing). It appears the
said Kabiru Sokoto is well connected? Was the Governor unaware of the 'august'
visitor in his lodge?
The Crude Oil Prospecting Licence Equation:
Sometime in 2013, the
Chairman Senate Committee on Business and Rules, Senator Ita Enang made a startling revelation that 83% of
Crude Oil Concession Licenses in Nigeria are in the hands of northerners.
Senator Enang reeled out the oil prospecting licenses owned by northerners. He
subsequently demanded that the aforementioned oil block licenses be revoked and
re-awarded in line with federal character principle.
There are suggestions
that many of the Crude Oil prospecting
licenses will expire, due for renewal between 2016-2019 hence whoever is the
sitting President determines whether or not the current owners will retain
their largesse, cash cow. This school of thought insinuate that this explains
why some cabals, a section of the country are bent on frustrating President
Jonathan into capitulating.
Violence As A Negotiating Tool:
Bring to mind that it was
the heckling, agitation for resource control spiced with militancy by Niger
Delta youths which dwindled Nigeria's Crude Oil production that galvanized
former President Obasanjo to pacify the South South with a Vice Presidential
slot. The erstwhile militants have since gotten their own fair share of the
'national cake' sequel to an 'amnesty largesse' that abruptly unveiled a
consortium of ex-Niger Delta militants
turned highflying foreign-trained pilots/experts and wheeling dealing,
nouveau-riche billionaires.
The problem with Boko
Haram is that their 'branding' is not clearly defined but their strategy of
keeping Nigeria(ns) constantly on the brink seem to be working.
The Nigerian scenario
seem to lend credence to Machiavelli's assertion that an "unarmed
prophet" will seldom have his way. MASSOB, Ombatse and other latent
militia's, terrorist, insurgency groups are keenly watching the development.
Connecting The Dots:
Nigeria is such an
interesting country where folks with the 'right connections' are above the law
and can get away with anything. While parading five suspects fingered in the
Nyanya bombing, the DSS Spokesperson, Marilyn Ogar declared wanted with
pageantry, one Aminu Sadiq Ogwuche, a supposed Army deserter and son of retired
Colonel Agene Ogwuche, who she claimed was once arrested for terrorism related
activities on 12th November 2011 but was released on bail because of 'intense
pressure' that came to bear on the DSS. How many other terrorism
suspects have been granted bail? Please madam, does this not smack of manifest
institutional failure that is the bane of our dear country? It will be great if
the Security agencies - the Department of State Security et al can forestall
such criminal activities rather than their penchant for "bringing out kegs to fetch
rain water after the rain must have stopped". Hopefully the DSS
will not capitulate again when "intense pressure" weighs on them.
Come to think of it, a UK-born son of a retired Colonel of the Directorate of
Military Intelligence (DMI) does not have the rap sheet of an average poverty
stricken, unemployed Nigerian geezer. Try connecting the dots and you will see
there is more to the publicly bandied alibi's for Boko Haram and terrorism in
Nigeria?
Some Posers:
What is your take, do you
concur with the hypothesis that behind-the-scenes, Boko Haram may after all be
an instrument of power play, a bargaining chip? Will a political solution, a
"soft approach", a "Special Development Plan" rein in Boko
Haram? Is this insecurity, terrorism
miasma a prelude to the prediction of Nigeria's imminent balkanization by 2015?
Now that our leaders have gone cap in hand to invite the United States et al
and the later obliged, is this an alibi, a precursor to having United States
drones, military base, AFRICOM stationed in Nigeria?
How Nigeria Can Overcome Instability, Terrorism and
Insurgency:
No doubt the United
States wields profound counter terrorism expertise. If our leaders, all
Nigerians do that which we MUST do and our 'friends' will do that which they
CAN do; then the synergy will yield desirable results. If it must survive as
one country, Nigeria urgently needs a no-holds-barred restructuring. Americans
cannot come and foist that on us. Americans will not fight corruption for us.
An Igbo adage goes thus, "it is easier for somebody who witnessed the
burial of a corpse to know what direction the head of the deceased lies than
for somebody that was not there". We cannot fold our hands, abdicate our
responsibilities and expect the Americans, Westerners to pull the magic wand.
Let's go beyond #AmericaWillKnow,
#DiarisGod o o o!
The home truth is that the foundation of this county is built on sand,
which explains why it is wobbling and may continue to wobble until we stop
playing the ostrich and do #TheNeedful. At
the risk of been dubbed a prophet of doom, I dare extrapolate that killing
Shekau, exterminating Boko Haram may not end terrorism, insurgency in Nigeria
unless we exterminate the causative agents of the disease as against treating
the symptoms as we are currently doing. Maitatsine beget Boko Haram; who
knows what Boko Haram, Ombatse et al will metamorphose into even if they are
temporarily, eventually put down? An Igbo
wise suffices: "after a battle, sharpen your
sword". We humbly implore
security agencies to think the unthinkable and be proactive.
The discordant tunes
emanating from Abuja when Boko Haram offered to swap abducted Chibok girls with
their "Comrades" held by the Nigerian government smacks arrant
confusion. This reinforces my persistent advocacy for Nigeria to exigently
articulate a coherent counter terrorism policy. I suspect Boko Haram may be in
for some mind games.
A Google search will spew
my latest and humble contribution: "33-Point Recommendation That WillCurtail Pervasive Instability, Insecurity, Terrorism/Insurgency inNigeria".
We entreat Boko Haram to
unconditionally #BringBackOurGirls and end its bloodletting campaign. There is
no justification whatsoever for slaughtering innocent Nigerians. A clarion call goes out to all Nigerians to
be resilient and unite against the vestiges of criminality and terrorism.
Security is a collective responsibility. "SAY
NO TO INSECURITY AND TERRORISM". See it, hear it, say it, stop it!!!
God bless Nigeria and
Nigerians.
Bio:
Don Okereke, a writer/blogger, passionate advocate, change agent, public speaker, versatile
Security Analyst/Consultant with over 17 years combined Military (Air Force),
Private Security, entrepreneurial experience.
www.donokereke.blogspot.com
Email: donnuait@yahoo.com
Twitter: @DonOkereke
Telephone: +234 708 000
8285
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